Politics Uncovered newsletter: Brexit is the elephant in the room of the UK's recession

However, certain economists have said the figures actually mask a worst outlook, as shown by GDP per capita. This measures the size of the economy by population, and last year this data point shrunk every single quarter. This shows in statistic exactly how people have felt during the cost of living crisis - that they’re getting poorer.

Either way, the figures are very bad for Rishi Sunak. One of his five pledges is to grow the economy and the Tories’ messaging is that it has turned a corner under the current Prime Minister. His sales pitch to the electorate has been economic competency, and that is falling flat on its face.

If Labour is elected later in the year, Keir Starmer will not find it easy to stimulate growth quickly. He hopes that by changing planning rules this will aid business investment and development, however that takes time. And this appears to be the only way he hopes to fund our country’s ailing public services due to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules.

The elephant in the room for both Sunak and Starmer around growth is Brexit. This week, Goldman Sachs released a report which found that the UK economy was 5% smaller compared with if it had stayed in the EU. That’s economic growth that Sunak would love to have now.

The US investment bank cited trade friction, fewer immigrants coming to work and higher than average inflation hampering the economy. It said all of these issues were worse because of Brexit. Already this year, we’ve heard how the new import checks on animal and plant products are massively hampering UK businesses.

In the autumn, every passport going into the EU will have to be checked with facial and fingerprint data - which will cause huge delays at ports and airports. Yet, neither leader wants to admit that Brexit is hugely stifling the UK economy’s growth.

Story of the week

Parliamentary precedent could thwart Boris Johnson’s comeback as an MP and mean he may immediately face the threat of a by-election over partygate, Commons sources have told NationalWorld. Tory MPs have been desperate for BoJo to return, however if he did become an MP again it’s highly likely his 90-day suspension over partygate would be reinstated.

Quote of the week

“These are fantastic results … that show people want change and are ready to put their faith in a changed Labour Party to deliver it”: Keir Starmer celebrating after Labour’s by-election wins in Kingswood and Wellingborough. The swing from Tory to Labour in the Northamptonshire seat in particular was almost 29%, the second largest since the Second World War. Read how it happened on our live blog here.

Coming up this week - another Gaza ceasefire vote

If Keir Starmer thought last week was difficult, then the next few days will not get any easier. The SNP will force a vote on a motion to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Last time, 10 frontbenchers quit Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet - how will the Labour leader handle it this time?

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