UK/US trade: 12 predictions on what Donald Trump's return will mean for UK businesses

James Disney MayJames Disney May
James Disney May
Donald Trump is now back in the White House and all eyes are focused on what impact his return will have on the global economy.

Many experts point to the fact Trump campaigned on a raft of economic proposals, including higher import tariffs, especially on Chinese goods, additional tax cuts, and an immigration clampdown.

And analysts have pointed out that while these actions could provide a short-term lift to the US economy, they could complicate wider global relationships.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

Entrepreneur James Disney-May, a British businessman and investor, based in New York, believes Trump’s return presents both risks and opportunities for those who specialise in UK-US investment.

Strategic advisor and US business expert James, who specialises in SaaS investment, said: “A second Trump term may increase market volatility, but could present high-reward opportunities for UK investors. Success will be dependent on adaptability – balancing risk, aligning with US priorities and responding quickly to regulatory shifts. While the “special relationship” may face new challenges, adaptable investors could leverage Trump’s policies for significant gains in a dynamic and complex US market.”

Here, business owner James, shares his 12 predictions on what the return of Donald Trump could mean for UK and US investment.

UK/US trade

*Trump’s “America First” approach could reshape UK-US trade negotiations, likely in favour of American interests. This could involve demands for concessions in high-stakes sectors, potentially disrupting British exports to the US. UK investors should prepare for and strategise around new tariffs and sector-specific trade frictions.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

*Trump’s preference for foreign businesses with a US presence could benefit UK companies willing to establish local operations. British companies investing in manufacturing or distribution centres may find a warm welcome, potentially gaining smoother regulatory pathways and preferential trade terms.

Financial Services

*Trump’s deregulation initiatives could favour a more laissez-faire, pro-business environment in the US, reducing regulatory burdens and promoting capital growth. The UK’s financial services sector, which is vital to its economy, may find short-term opportunities in the US market, however increased volatility poses long-term risks.

*UK financial institutions may need to adjust their strategies to align with the evolving US regulatory landscape, particularly in areas such as cryptocurrency, data privacy, and financial disclosures. Firms nimble enough to pivot will have the edge in capitalising on these shifting regulatory tides.

Tech Sector

*Trump’s focus on tech independence and data regulation could lead to stricter rules on cross-border tech operations, impacting UK firms with US activities. However, a potential alignment between the US and UK on emerging technology initiatives, such as AI and cybersecurity may create new opportunities for UK tech firms with specialised expertise.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

*As the US prioritises homegrown digital infrastructure and distances itself from Chinese tech, UK firms may encounter regulatory challenges but also unique partnership opportunities. Tech sovereignty will likely dictate the rules of engagement in this sector.

Energy Policy

*Trump’s support for fossil fuels combined with regulatory rollbacks may challenge the renewable energy ambitions of some UK firms, especially those reliant on federal support. However, opportunities could exist for UK companies specialising in technologies that improve fossil fuel efficiency, offering a bridge between traditional and renewable energy sources.

*For UK investors, betting on fossil fuels might once again be a winning strategy. Trump’s pro-energy stance could bring tax incentives and other perks to the sector, making fossil fuel investments an attractive prospect.

Strong Dollar

*Trump’s anticipated tax cuts and deregulatory push could strengthen the US dollar, making American assets more expensive for UK investors and straining British companies reliant on US imports. Those with dollar-heavy portfolios may need to hedge against currency fluctuations, re-evaluating acquisition costs and profitability.

Hide Ad
Hide Ad

*A stronger dollar may benefit UK-based exporters by making British goods more competitive in the US market. UK investors with US interests might need to adjust their currency strategies to account for exchange rate fluctuations.

China

*Trump’s tough stance on China might pressure the UK to align more closely with the US, reducing dependency on Chinese supply chains. “Friend-shoring” initiatives could prioritise manufacturing and tech partnerships among allies, creating opportunities for UK firms in sectors like semiconductors, AI, and defence technology.

*For UK businesses willing to decouple from China, Trump’s policies may bring preferential trade arrangements with the US, solidifying the “special relationship” as global geopolitics evolve. Those prepared to realign could enjoy a competitive edge in the US market.

James is an entrepreneur, business owner, investor, and strategic advisor, managing a diverse portfolio of technology investments and wholly owned companies. He provides capital, strategic insight, and hands-on operational support to innovative technology companies across the UK, Europe, and the US. His focus is on partnering with driven entrepreneurs and dynamic management teams, helping them scale their businesses and unlock new growth opportunities.

Related topics:
Telling news your way
Follow us
©National World Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.Cookie SettingsTerms and ConditionsPrivacy notice