How much does ‘Barbie’ need to make back at the box office to cover its promotional costs, and will it?

It’s kind of hard to go anywhere the last few weeks without seeing the colour pink and references to Greta Gerwig’s much anticipated “Barbie” adaptation, which finally hits cinemas this weekend alongside Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” epic. From posters, to merchandise tie-in’s all the way through to pink T.A.R.D.I.S’ appearing in London and even a Barbie “dream house,” which seemed to have disappeared off AirBnB’s listing and re-appeared recently.

Seems like an awful lot of money has been spent ensuring that you, the remaining cinema going public, are aware that Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling are Barbie and Ken. But how much money alone went into the promotional aspect of the movie? Well, according to one industry insider, it’s almost as much as the entire budget spent on another cinematic hopeful that was released earlier in the year - “The Flash.”

That is according to FandomWire’s Sampurna Banerjee, who last week reported that Warner Bros. were rumoured to have spent $100 million USD alone on marketing and promotion for the film. To put that into perspective, “The Flash” had an overall budget of $200 million - in effect, the movie studio paid half of the budget for the Ezra Miller “flop” (we’ll see how it pans out now it’s on streaming services) just on adjourning everywhere in pink.

But, as Banerjee’s article rightly points out, the marketing for “Barbie” has been one that has been very outside-the-box, and in doing so has captured the attention of the public enthusiastically. We’re still talking about that Barbie dream house weeks after it was first revealed, as we’re very sure when the film is coming out. 

But with the budget for the movie itself estimated to be $145 million USD, that brings the grand sum that the film needs to recoup to $245 million USD, if those reports are correct. The biggest box office draw this year so far, “The Super Mario Brothers Movie,” took $146 million USD in its opening weekend, the biggest box office this year - so far. 

How much were the overall costs for other 2023 movies that ‘flopped’?

According to figures provided by both Collider and IMDB, the overall costs for some of this year’s expected “blockbusters” pale in comparison to the opening weekend box offices, which analysts always regard as a good early indicator whether a film will be a success, or whether it will be a flop.

“The Flash” overall budget, including marketing materials, is one of the cheapest on our list, coming in at an estimated $265 million USD, while the latest Indiana Jones film is the most expensive with an estimated overall budget of $445 million USD. The latter has perhaps the biggest hill to climb regarding its opening weekend figures. 

However streaming services since COVID-19 have had a hand in making or breaking even for a film - as David Chase can attest to with “The Many Saints of Newark” making its money back after being released on MAX (then known as HBO Max.)

How much is “Barbie” predicted to make at the box office?

According to Forbes, early indications suggest that Barbie will have an opening weekend of $110 million, going on early bookings for the film in North America alone, which would almost match half of the estimated budget, both in terms of the film’s production and marketing costs.

In contrast, “Oppenheimer” is set to open to a $50 million opening weekend box office, though Christopher Nolan’s film was estimated to cost around $100 to make, meaning that if that figure is correct, it’s expected to make back half its budget by the end of the weekend in the US.