Covid rates UK: Are cases rising in my area? Current forecast

As winter approaches and immune systems weaken, it’s vital to stay aware of the rate in which Covid-19 is spreading in your area. With the emergence of the latest variant, Pirola, or BA.2.86, cases have been on the rise in the UK since summer but what is the current forecast?

According to the Health Security Agency (UKHSA), there have been 34 confirmed cases of Pirola in England, as of September 4. But to get an idea of the whole picture including the current rate of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the UK, we will need to assess the latest data on the issue.

Here’s everything you need to know about current Covid rates in the UK.

Covid-19 rates in the UK - the current forecast

According to the most recent UKHSA report, from late August, SARS-CoV-2 positivity increased to 9.7% in week 34 compared to 8.6% in the previous week. However, the overall number of reported SARS-CoV-2 confirmed outbreaks decreased compared to the previous week.

The UKHSA report from late July noted that hospitalisations were on the rise, increasing from 1.47 per 100,000 people the week before the report to 1.97 per 100,000 people. “Hospitalisations were highest in the 85 years and over age group,” the report said.

However, the lastest data suggests that hospitalisations have stablised compared to previous weeks with admissions remaining low. The levels of hospitalisation rates still pale in comparison to what they have been.

In early January 2021 the hospital admission rate was greater than 36 per 100,000 while in March this year it was a little over 10 per 100,000.

Are Covid-19 rates rising in my area?

According to the Government website, the rate of Covid-19 positive cases per 100,000 people in the last week, by country, are as follows... (the stats were updated on Thursday, 14 September)

Wales - 10.3, up from 9.4 the previous week

Scotland - 29.5, up from 28.6

England - 20.6, up from 15.8

You can see how the current rates or how they are rising in your area by using the government’s interactive map for cases.