COP28: What is the UAE Consensus - as world agrees to move away from fossil fuels at UN climate conference

In a historic move, nearly 200 countries have now agreed the world needs to move away from relying on fossil fuels.

COP28, the United Nations' 28th annual climate change summit, has drawn to a close in Dubai this week. Despite some uncertainty members were able to reach a new deal - dubbed the 'UAE Consensus' - which sets out how the world might still be able to limit warming to the 1.5C decided in the Paris Agreement

However, the conference's progress and historic acknowledgement have been tainted by controversies. Scientists, politicians, and environmental campaigners alike also say that the deal's eventual wording has left them wanting - with a commitment to "phasing out" fossil fuels reduced to merely transitioning away from them, and no concrete way laid out to ensure countries honour their commitment.

So what exactly was the agreement that was reached at COP28, and what do experts think about it? Here's everything you need to know:

What is the UAE Consensus?

The historic deal to come out of the latest UN climate conference has been dubbed the UAE Consensus, after COP28's host country, the United Arab Emirates. The UAE Consensus sets out an agenda to keep 2015's Paris Agreement - to limit the world to an average global temperature increase of 1.5C above preindustrial levels - within reach. This is the level at which many experts agree governments can still mitigate some of the worst impacts of climate change.

The deal explicitly called on countries to transition away from fossil fuels, so the world can reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions. This marked the first time members specifically agreed on the need to pivot away from relying on fossil fuels for energy, while also calling for a "just and orderly" transition to renewable energy sources. The specific target set out in the consensus was for parties to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030.

It also called on countries to step up their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - or climate action plan to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts - by encouraging “economy-wide emission reduction targets", included a new specific target, and helped build "momentum towards a new architecture for climate finance".

However, the agreement did not set out timeframes for transitioning away from oil, coal, and gas, nor did it do anything to ensure countries stick to the deal. The BBC reports that talks came close to collapsing altogether, and the eventual consensus ended up departing from earlier, stronger language to "phase out fossil fuels" - which has attracted some controversy.

There had already been some concern about the conference being held in Dubai at all, with the UAE one of the world's leading oil producers. The country also appointed the CEO of its state-owned oil company - Sultan al-Jaber - as the COP28 president, although he argued this put him in a unique position to push for change within the industry, the BBC reports.

What do the experts say about it?

Scientists

Scientists have broadly welcomed the acknowledgement of fossil fuels as the root cause of climate change, and say the conference heralded a real step forward. Dave Reay, professor of carbon management at the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission, said: "Make no mistake, this is real progress on the road to consigning the fossil fuels to history. All nations will now need to look again at their national actions on climate change and up their ambitions by 2025 in a way that delivers global alignment with the Paris climate goals.

The tripling of renewable energy will be central to this, he continued, "but so too will be the overt commitment to a just transition". "Sultan Al-Jaber has achieved the near impossible in bringing everyone with him in Dubai. It's now for all nations to ensure that, in the individual and collective action they take on climate change, no one on Earth is left behind."

But many also say there needs to be immediate, concrete action from member countries to actually transition away from them. Dr Friederike Otto, a senior climate science lecturer at Imperial College London, described the agreement as "lukewarm", and said it would cost every country dearly, "no matter how rich, no matter how poor".

“It’s hailed as a compromise, but we need to be very clear what has been compromised," she continued. "The short-term financial interests of a few have again won over the health, lives and livelihoods of most people living on this planet. We need to remember why we do these COPs. The Paris Agreement is a human rights agreement. Not delivering the policies needed to achieve its goals is violating human rights. With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die."

At the world's current level, 1.2C of warming, we were already seeing devastating climate impacts that disrupted economies, destroyed livelihoods and claimed lives, Dr Otto said. “Until fossil fuels are phased out, the world will continue to become a more dangerous, more expensive and more uncertain place to live."

Politicians

UK climate minister Graham Stuart called the signing a “historic moment”. While “there are elements here we do not like”, Stuart said the text signalled an end to the fossil fuel era, and he was proud of the UK's contribution to it.

In Commons, Labour's shadow climate minister Ed Miliband said: “For all of the advances that were made, the truth is that the world is still hurtling for disaster, way off track for keeping 1.5C alive.” He said the question for the world ahead of the next conference was “whether good words at COP28 are finally matched by actions equal to the scale of the emergency”.

He suggested the government was seeking to use “loopholes” in the agreement to avoid the “reality” of needing to leave the majority of fossil fuels in the ground, as it continued with plans to extract more fossil fuels - and questioned how the government could persuade other nations not to take similar actions. Stuart responded that it would be “environmental nonsense” not to replace higher-emission imported gas with lower-emission domestic supplies when it would “make no difference to our consumption”.

Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf said it was “disappointing” that COP28 failed to produce a “stronger resolution” that would have committed countries across the world to phase out fossil fuels. Despite that, he said nations must all keep striving to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees. “It is absolutely crucial that we have political consensus on climate change – both at home and abroad – and that we work together to make a constructive contribution to addressing this monumental challenge.”

Environmental campaigners

Environmental campaigners have largely agreed there was little to celebrate from the deal that was eventually reached. Greenpeace International political advisor Kaisa Kosonen said it was not the historic deal the world needed.

"The signal that the fossil industry has been afraid of is there: ending the fossil fuel era, along with a call to massively scale up renewables and efficiency this decade, but it’s buried under many dangerous distractions and without sufficient means to achieve it in a fair and fast manner," she said. "You won’t find the words ‘phase out’ in the text, but that’s what the equitable transition away from fossil fuels in line with 1.5C and science will necessitate."

The deal had many loopholes and shortcomings, she continued. "But history will be made if all those nearly 130 countries, businesses, local leaders and civil society voices, who came together to form an unprecedented force for change, now take this determination and make the fossil fuel phase out happen. Most urgently that means stopping all those expansion plans that are pushing us over the 1.5C limit right now.”

Friends of the Earth’s international climate campaigner Rachel Kennerley – who has been attending the talks - said: “Self-interest, weak leadership and a lack of urgency by wealthy countries like the UK, Japan and US and the EU bloc, has resulted in a desperately inadequate COP28 resolution that leaves the world on a collision course with the worst of climate breakdown.

“These talks will never achieve the breakthrough we need until the rich countries that have contributed most to the climate crisis, including the UK, face up to their responsibilities by phasing out the use of fossil fuels fairly and fast and by providing adequate funding for poorer nations."