The UK's homes are built to keep in the heat - but study says climate change is going to make that a problem

Scientists have warned against the easy option of installing more air conditioning, which could create a "vicious cycle" of energy use and climate change

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The UK and Switzerland have topped the charts in a new University of Oxford study, for countries which will need to make the most radical changes to keep its homes cool enough for those inside.

Climate change is driving the average global temperature up, with last week and last month both breaking records for hottest on record. But like much of the global north, the UK's homes were built to keep heat in during the cold winter.

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With extreme heat killing over 61,000 people in Europe last summer, scientists have urged British households to start preparing for hotter homes now - and urged them not to just fall back on air conditioners, which could make the problem worse.

Researchers behind the new study - published in Nature Sustainability on Thursday (13 July) - used a scientific measurement called “cooling degree days” to calculate how much time residents of different countries would need to spend actively cooling down their buildings to make them comfortable inside, if - and when - the Earth’s average temperature increased from 1.5C to 2C above pre-industrial levels.

Residents relax outside their home during summer 2022, as temperatures exceeded 40C in parts of England (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)Residents relax outside their home during summer 2022, as temperatures exceeded 40C in parts of England (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)
Residents relax outside their home during summer 2022, as temperatures exceeded 40C in parts of England (Photo: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

In the UK, the current cooling degree day average would shoot up nearly 30% at just 1.5C warming, the study found, beaten only by Switzerland - also sitting at around 30% more uncomfortably hot days.

Sky News reported Norway came in third at 28% more uncomfortably hot days, then Finland and Sweden - both also at 28% - then Austria, Canada, Denmark, and New Zealand, all seeing a 24% increase. Belgium rounded off the list, with its hot days to climb about 21%.

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However, researchers said that no country was shielded from the impacts of global temperature increases, with countries just south of the Sahara desert to be more exposed to heat than any others. But for northern countries, it meant having to radically adapt.

“In the northern hemisphere in Europe, the buildings are made to keep heat in," lead author Dr Nicole Miranda said. “We are at risk in the summertime, when heatwaves come or when higher temperatures in general come that we overheat our buildings."

She continued: “Even a small increase in the temperatures are actually showing a high relative change which can be very impactful and make these countries more vulnerable to needing more cooling."

The scientists warned of a “vicious cycle” developing, where people burned more fossil fuels to provide energy for cooling, which then heated the climate further. It predicted that the amount of energy needed just for cooling by 2050 will be equivalent to the entire 2016 electricity use of Japan, the United States and the European Union combined.

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Dr Miranda warned Britons if the UK did not prepare for the coming heat now, later falling back on just installing air conditioning, it would only make the problem worse.

The researchers suggested solutions like having personal fans that cool only the space occupied by people and not entire empty rooms - or planting trees or installing awnings near buildings to block direct sunlight.

They also suggested retrofitting more buildings with ventilation that was able to be closed off during the winter months.

MP Philip Dunne, chair of the Environmental Audit Committee, told PA "the alarming findings" should give everyone pause for thought.

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“It is deeply concerning that the UK is among the three countries that will see the largest increase in temperature, particularly as we know that the UK is not yet adequately prepared for the consequences," he said. “Hotter summers are our new normal: we must learn to adapt to them and to mitigate the harms that extreme hot weather will bring.”

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