By election results 2024 live: Labour win Wellingborough and Kingswood in double blow for Rishi Sunak

Polls have closed in Wellingborough and Kingswood, and the counting will begin shortly. I'm heading off to Kettering now, where the count for the former is happening, and we'll also have updates coming in from South Gloucestershire. See you in an hour.

Expect a lot of expectation management from the parties this evening, and it starts with Labour. National Election Coordinator Pat McFadden says: "We are proud of the positive campaigns we have run in Kingswood and Wellingborough. We were always aware of the challenge ahead of us with the large Conservative majorities in both seats, which are both beyond our target list for a general election."

Despite those comments, Labour would be very disappointed if it didn't take both seats tonight. If you drank every time a Labour figure says "Rishi's recession" tonight you'd be fast asleep before the results come in.

McFadden starts us off: "Rishi’s recession means this Tory Government is unable to concentrate on what matters to people in both these areas and across the country. It will be some time before we know the results, but we are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back."

The Conservative deputy chairman Luke Hall has been speaking to the BBC. He said his party had run a “great campaign” in Kingswood, but admitted the contest was “difficult”.

He told the BBC: “By-elections are always difficult for governing parties. Tony Blair lost by-elections, David Cameron lost by-elections, and then went on to win majorities and actually increase their share of the vote at the next general election.

“So I think we should be careful about reading too much into any specific by-election result because a lot of different factors are at play.

“But it’s too early to say what this result might be, we will just have to wait a few hours to find out, but we fought a great campaign, I’m proud of what we’ve done, I very much hope we get a good result.”

The count is in full swing in Wellingborough. Journalists have been placed on a balcony overlooking the court of the National Volleyball Centre. Thankfully there's cafe with refreshments. Outside the rain is swirling down, an omen for Keir Starmer/Rishi Sunak (choose your fighter).

Elections guru John Curtice says Reform UK "ought to get something closer to 12% or 13%" in Wellingborough, given how pro-Brexit the constituency is. Almost two-thirds of voters backed Leave in 2016, however a pro-Remain candidate Gen Kitchen for Labour is the favourite.

Curtice told the BBC: "Quite a lot of people in the polling community have been saying that so far Reform’s relatively anaemic performances in parliamentary by-elections – their best performance is around 5-6% – for their minds has been raising questions as to whether or not the 10% that Reform is now registering in opinion polls, up the last two or three months, perhaps it’s overestimating Reform’s strength.

“Well, in a sense Wellingborough therefore will give us a crucial signal. Reform seem to have set for themselves a target (of) that 10%, frankly given how pro-Leave the seat is one might think they ought to get something closer to 12% or 13%.”

That would be a very good night for Reform, although it would help if their candidate campaigned in the actual constituency.

Whispers in the press room at the Wellingborough count indicate that Labour could be on for a "massive" win. LBC's Henry Riley has heard that from a Lib Dem source.

Labour is also feeling confident in Kingswood, a source at the count in South Gloucestershire tells me. Chris Skidmore's majority in 2019 was 11,220, so a sizeable margin - but much lower than some that Labour has overturned recently.

He also was not forced out in disgrace, as has been the case with several other recent by-elections, but resigned over the government's climate change policies. That means fewer local factors at play than we might have in Wellingborough. Despite this, it still sounds like Labour is feeling confident of taking the south-west seat.

The voter turnout in Kingswood has been announced at 37.1%, which isn't bad for a by-election in a constituency that won't exist in a year's time. The Kingswood result is expected around 3am so put another pot of coffee on.

Turnout in Wellingborough is very slightly higher than Kingswood at 38.1%. Fairly impressive at both polls, given the date is so close to the general election.

Finally we've managed to dodge the expectation management for once. Labour Rural Affairs Minister Toby Perkins says he is ... "expectant".

He said: “We’ve got a by-election in a seat that we have been losing in huge quantities in recent elections and suddenly, we are clearly competitive, as it seems we’re being listened to in places like Wellingborough again, so we’re hugely excited.

“But we’re still a good few hours away from the result, so after that we’ll either be ecstatic or down in the dumps.”