By-elections 2023 live: Labour takes historic win in Selby & Ainsty after Tories hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Photographs as counting begins in the by-elections.

Earlier, I said that if Labour overturned the 20,137 majority in Selby and Ainsty it would be a record for a by-election. Britain Elects and New Statement data journalist Ben Walker reckons this would be a record in any election. He's checked 1945 and 1997 - if you know better make sure to tweet Ben.

Waiting patiently for some TV elections coverage, you're not alone! The BBC's News Special starts on BBC One at 12.05pm. ITV1 is not putting on a programme for this, and neither is Channel 4 - although it is showing 23 Hours in A&E at the same time, which is probably worth a watch for many of the politicians. Sky News also has a by-elections show which starts at 12am on the dot. Let me know which you prefer at [email protected].

Labour chairwoman Anneliese Dodds played down expectations after the polls closed, calling them “incredibly challenging elections” for the party.

Other than the Tories having solid majorities, it's hardly a challenging time for Labour - the party is miles ahead in the polls and Boris Johnson and Liz Truss both quit as PM in disgrace. Labour will need to take seats like Uxbridge if it wants to win a majority in the general election.

Dodds told BBC Newsnight: “Whatever the result one thing is very clear, and it’s been clear to me when I’ve been speaking with people on the doorstep that there will be people in this election who will be voting Labour for the first time.

“They can see that Keir Starmer has turned the Labour Party around, that the Labour Party is in the service of working people.

“And I think that will definitely be the case whatever the eventual result from these by-elections.”

The Liberal Democrats appear to be claiming victory - in a slightly weird way - in Somerton and Frome. Ed Davey, the party leader, has tweeted: "I think we’re going to need a bigger tractor." This is in reference to when Davey launched the Lib Dems' local election campaign by driving a tractor through a "Blue Wall" of hay bales. Davey likes a gimmick.

Yes the Lib Dems are definitely claiming victory in Somerton and Frome. A spokesman has just said: "We’ve not just won, we’ve romped home in Somerton and Frome. The Conservative vote is in free-fall."

That would make Sarah Dyke the next MP for Somerton and Frome, defeating Tory candidate Faye Purbrick.

Beyond the important task of electing each constituency's democratic representative in Parliament, these three by-elections should give us a good idea if the opinion polls are being borne out at the ballot box.

Currently, Labour are about 21 points ahead of the Conservatives in the polls - and they'll need to maintain a similar lead to achieve a clear majority at the next general election. To do that, Labour will have to win seats such as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which Boris Johnson won in 2019 with a majority of 7,210.

If Labour is going to win in a 1997-style landslide, they will need to overturn much bigger majorities. So Selby and Ainsty, where the Tories currently have a majority of more than 20,000, will be a good litmus test of that. If Labour won the North Yorkshire seat - which be the biggest majority the party has overturned in its history - it would be a fairly seismic shock, and worry a lot of Conservative MPs.

However if the Conservatives hold onto one or both of these seats, it may point to issues with Keir Starmer's leadership.

Tory MPs will also be worried if the Liberal Democrats take Somerton and Frome, which is a fairly stereotypical Blue Wall seat. The Conservatives are facing a squeeze from the Lib Dems in the South and Labour in the Red Wall - which puts the party in a difficult position electorally. These by-elections should give us a good idea of how difficult a position the Tories are stuck in.

The by-elections have happened because three Tory MPs have resigned.

Boris Johnson’s resignation over the Privileges Committee’s report has already caused serious issues for Rishi Sunak, but its main consequences for the Prime Minister might be still to come, if he loses control of his predecessor’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency to Labour.

Selby and Ainsty MP Nigel Adams had already said he would not stand again at the next election, but his decision to resign alongside his close ally Johnson and trigger a by-election in the process was seen as being designed to further damage Sunak.

And to make matters worse, the disgraced former Conservative David Warburton opted to resign as an MP recently having sat as an independent since April, following a series of scandals involving drug use and allegations of sexual misconduct. His Somerton and Frome seat is arguably the safest of all three for the Conservatives, but the Liberal Democrats are still favoured to win it.

If you're watching the BBC you may have heard a spat between Tory Robert Buckland and Labour's Thangam Debbonaire. The Labour frontbencher referred to a government severance pay out of thousands of pounds that Buckland received after he left Cabinet as Welsh Secretary. Buckland described it as a "personal attack".

Ministers are entitled to a “loss of office” payment when they resign or are fired, if they are under 65 and are not appointed to a new role within three weeks. However, it is up to them whether they take the money or not - and they can choose to pay it back if they return to government after the three-week period.

The list of government severance payments was released yesterday, my colleague Imogen Howse reports, and it includes Boris Johnson and Liz Truss took £18,660 for quitting as Prime Minister, Kwasi Kwarteng - the shortest Chancellor in history - accepted £16,876.

One of the more controversial names on the list is that of Chris Pincher, the deputy chief whip who resigned in disgrace last summer after allegations of groping. He received £7,920 after stepping down from the role.

It sounds like we may get some results soon. Somerton and Frome - which is expected to go to the Liberal Democrats - and Uxbridge and South Ruislip could be declared. At the counts, it appears as if they're getting ready to make an announcement.

Not so fast! There is going to be a recount in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which means it's going to be tight. This is bad news for Labour, who would have hoped to have taken this more comfortably.

Labour are thought to be running second in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Mirror's John Stevens told the BBC's elections programme. They are thought to be around 400 votes short, and asked for a recount. This would be a big blow for Labour, who were odds on favourites to take the seat. It appears as if the expansion of the Ultra Low Emission Zone by Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan has been a big vote driver for the Tories.

Read more about what voters told NationalWorld about the ULEZ here.

The Conservatives have held Uxbridge and South Ruislip in a shock result. Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell narrowly beat Labour's Danny Beales. The Conservatives received 13,965 votes while Labour got 13,470. This is a big blow to Labour, who were odds on to win the seat. Tuckwell says that "Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election", saying he won based on anti-ULEZ sentiment.

The Liberal Democrats have won Somerton and Frome off the Tories, overturning a majority of more than 19,000. Lib Dem Sarah Dyke gained 21,187 votes, while Conservative Faye Purbrick received just 10,179 votes. Dyke said the result shows "the Liberal Democrats are back in the West Country" and said she would "take this woeful government on".

The new Tory MP was very clear about why he won the seat - the Ultra Low Emission Zone. Steve Tuckwell said Mayor Sadiq Khan had cost Labour the seat: "It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election.

“This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents."

These comments will have concerned both Labour and Tory HQs. Rishi Sunak might have been slightly perturbed that Tuckwell did not mention any of his policies as to why he had been elected.

And Labour will be wondering whether the ULEZ is a single issue for this by-election, or whether it will affect the next general election. And Keir Starmer's team should be worried that one local issue was stronger than Labour's overall pitch, with the Tories suffering in the opinion polls.

If you're still there, stay with me - we're expecting Selby and Ainsty pretty soon. It sounds like Labour believe they may have won it off the Conservatives, which would be a huge result and completely change the complexion of Keir Starmer's night.

It looks like the Selby and Ainsty result is fairly imminent, someone has just stood on stage and asked the candidates and their agents to follow someone called Barry.

Labour has taken a historic victory, winning Selby and Ainsty off the Conservatives. This is the largest majority Labour has overturned from the Tories in history, and dramatically improves Sir Keir Starmer's night after the shock loss in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

The former Conservative MP Nigel Adams, who quit alongside Boris Johnson, had previously had a majority of 20,137. Labour's 25-year-old candidate Keir Mather - who will become the youngest MP in Parliament - won 16,456 votes, a fairly sizeable majority over Tory Claire Holmes, who received 12,295 votes.