By-elections 2023 live: Labour takes historic win in Selby & Ainsty after Tories hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Good evening, there's just over 10 minutes until polls close at 10pm. We then should get some information about how the seats might go. Email your thoughts to [email protected].

Polls have closed in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty and Somerton and Frome. Put the kettle on as it could be a long night - results aren't expected until around 3am. We'll bring all the reaction and results as soon as they come in.

NationalWorld's late editor Jamie Jones has been writing about her constituency Somerton and Frome, which is up for grabs this evening:

After an unconvincing performance in 2010, the Conservatives ‘took control’ in 2015 and have kept a tight hold on power ever since. However, allegations of misconduct, sleaze and sloppiness have seen the man in charge step down and a massive majority slipping through that clenched fist.

But this is not a summary of the Tories in government. It is the story of the West Country constituency of Somerton and Frome - the place I call home.

It’s rare a single vote, my own included, feels like it could have such a powerful effect on the future of the country.

David Warburton won control of Somerton and Frome in a landslide win during the 2015 election, which saw David Cameron and Ed Milliband go head-to-head. While his party took the helm with a small majority, Warburton presided over an 18-point swing against the Liberal Democrats, securing a 53 percent share of the vote. In 2017 and 2019, he held his seat convincingly, increasing his share.

However, mirroring the trajectory of the Conservative Party polling - and of Boris Johnson’s premiership - Mr Warburton’s reign was cut short after allegations of sexual harassment against the former music teacher emerged in April 2022, leading to the Conservative whip being suspended and, ultimately, to his resignation.

A Sunday Times report alleged Warburton harassed three women and used cocaine and in a Daily Mail interview upon resigning, he admitted to the drug taking after drinking “incredibly potent Japanese whisky” in a situation his wife described as a “honey trap”. He denied all of the other allegations.

Following a formal complaint by a member of staff in Warburton’s Westminster office, parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS) opened an investigation into four allegations of sexual misconduct, and two bullying and harassment claims against him.

However, despite the parliamentary commissioner for standards upholding three of the allegations, the saga rumbles on as earlier this week, the Independent Expert Panel (IEP) found the investigation to be ‘materially and procedurally flawed’, saying it made “no findings on the substance of the complaint” and ordered the commissioner to open a new probe.

But back in Somerset, the 14 months since the allegations emerged have seen discontent grow.

Earlier this year, Frome Town Council - one of the emerging cosmopolitan towns in this neck of the woods - unanimously passed a vote of no confidence in Warburton, with councillors accusing him of failing to hold constituency surgeries since his suspension, which he denied.

Calls for his resignation came after a year of absence from Parliament, and more votes of no confidence followed in towns like Langport, before he finally announced his intention to step down last month, claiming he had been denied a fair hearing.

Read Jamie's full piece here.

Ahead of the results later, the Tories have released a statement and surprise, surprise they're trying to play down the importance of these elections.

A spokesman said: “There’s no doubt that this was always going to be a very challenging set of by-elections, especially given the circumstances in which they were brought about.

“We have to wait for the results to come in, but by-elections are rarely won by governing parties and they are rarely good indicators of general election performance.

“Across all of these campaigns we have heard zero enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and their lack of answers.

“We now need to redouble our efforts earning back the trust of voters by delivering on our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy , reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.”

And a less bullish statement than expected from Labour, saying taking any of these seats was "always going to be a challenge". Remember Labour were the bookies favourites for Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Selby and Ainsty, so if the Tories hold either of them that would be considered a success.

A Labour Party spokesman said: “It’s going to be some time before we get any results. But what we do know is that none of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so they were always going to be a challenge.

“We didn’t even win Uxbridge in 1997 and to win Selby and Ainsty would require us to overturn the biggest majority in our history.

“So while we don’t know if we’ve made it over the line, it’s clear that Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us — many for the first time.”

Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine said: “If we succeed in overturning the huge 19,000 majority in Somerton and Frome, in what should be a safe Conservative seat, it would mark a watershed moment for the Liberal Democrats.

“It would prove yet again that in vast swathes of the country, from Somerset to Surrey, the best way to get rid of this Conservative government is to vote for the Liberal Democrats."

Now that the polls have closed we should start to get some rumours and expectations about the results from the parties who have been out canvassing. And in Somerton and Frome the Lib Dems sound pretty confident. They will have to overturn a majority of more than 19,000, however they form for this in the South West. In neighbouring Devon, Richard Foord overturned a Tory majority of more than 24,000 in the Tiverton and Honiton by-election.

Were Labour to win in Selby and Ainsty it would be the biggest majority, 20,137, they've overturned from the Tories in a by-election. And while the Conservatives are playing the expectation management game, and saying they expect to lose all three seats, Labour are being pretty coy. Sources are saying it's likely to be tight - if they win it will give them a huge boost going into the general election.

If Labour don't win Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson's soon to be former seat in west London, there will be huge questions to be asked of Sir Keir Starmer. London has become a Labour stronghold in recent years, with the party taking Barnet, Westminster and Wandsworth in last year's local elections. However the policy dominating the contest has been the Ultra Low Emission Zone, a charge brought in by Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan on old polluting vehicles, which will soon be extended across the constituency. Khan has been conspicuous in his absence on the campaign trail, and Labour candidate Danny Beales has sought to distance himself from the policy.

You can read more about the ULEZ controversy here.

While you're waiting for the by-election results, it looks like the government potentially tried to bury some bad news - Boris Johnson's legal bill for his failed defence of partygate. And they topped £265,000, according to new figures.

Figures published by the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed that the former PM’s final legal costs totalled £265,522, after it covered the bill for Johnson as he defended himself during the parliamentary partygate inquiry.

Solicitors firm Peters & Peters was awarded a contract worth £129,700 in August 2022 to provide Johnson with advice during the investigation, although later Cabinet Office estimates had put the costs as at least £222,000.

The cross-party Privileges Committee ultimately found that Johnson lied to Parliament over lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street.

The former Tory leader quit the Commons before the committee delivered its recommendations, which included that Johnson should have faced a 90-day suspension for misleading the House and being complicit in a campaign of intimidation against the panel investigating him.

Photographs as counting begins in the by-elections.

Earlier, I said that if Labour overturned the 20,137 majority in Selby and Ainsty it would be a record for a by-election. Britain Elects and New Statement data journalist Ben Walker reckons this would be a record in any election. He's checked 1945 and 1997 - if you know better make sure to tweet Ben.