Mid Bedfordshire by-election odds: will Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems replace Nadine Dorries?

Polls have closed in the hotly contested Mid Bedfordshire by-election to replace Nadine Dorries.

The former Culture Secretary quit as an MP at the end of August, after previously saying in June that she would resign after not getting a peerage. Before resigning, Dorries had not spoken in the House of Commons for more than a year and had only mentioned her constituency name once in the chamber since the 2019 election.

She had also got rid of her constituency office. Her daughter is employed as her senior parliamentary assistant, being paid between £45,000 and £49,999 a year. When NationalWorld visited her constituency, almost everyone we spoke to said they wanted Dorries to resign. One woman said: “It’s an illusion we have an MP - she doesn’t exist as far as we can tell."

The result is a rare three-way race between the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Who are the candidates for the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?

Festus Akinbusoye, Bedfordshire’s Police and Crime Commissioner - a role which has an oath of impartiality - is the Conservative candidate. His office said: “While Mr Akinbusoye will undoubtedly now be campaigning for the upcoming by-election after being selected as the Conservative Party candidate for the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, he will continue to carry out his PCC duties.”

Alistair Strathern, a maths teacher who also works for the Bank of England, is Labour’s candidate. Strathern has quit as a councillor in Waltham Forest, north-east London, and has moved back to Mid Bedfordshire, which is where he grew up. 

He told NationalWorld: “When we’re out on the doors, pretty much universally, residents are desperate to see someone who’s going to be taking the job seriously on a full-time basis. We’re struggling to find any supporters of the incumbent MP, and we’re finding plenty of people who are both let down by her, and the Conservative government.”

Emma Holland-Lindsay, a councillor from neighbouring Leighton Buzzard, has been selected as the Lib Dem candidate. She said: “I am determined to be a strong local champion for communities across Bedfordshire.”

Independent councillor Gareth Mackey, from the town of Flitwick, is also running. He said: “One of the big things voters are telling me, is that if we actually had an MP who was present and listened, and wasn’t part of all this political party infighting and nonsense, at least they would be heard. They might not be able to solve everything, but at least they would be heard - they’d feel like they were a bit more important.”

What are the odds for the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?

Before the polls opened, the Conservatives were the odds-on favourites to retain Mid Bedfordshire, according to Betfair Exchange. The Tories were 4/5, while Labour - who topped the only poll in the seat - were 5/2. The Liberal Democrats were 5/1, according to Betfair. It has been Tory since 1931, with Dorries winning a majority of 24,664 at the 2019 election.

Betfair Exchange spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “The Conservatives are the 4/5 favourites to win the Mid Bedfordshire by-election with the seat being vacant since Nadine Dorries resigned in August earlier this year. Tamworth is another vacant seat up for grabs and Labour are the clear 1/4 frontrunners to claim it, while the Tories are 16/5 with the Lib Dems 3/1.”

While Neil Roarty, spokesperson for bettingsites.co.uk, said: “With voters going to the polls to elect new MPs in the constituencies of Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth, we make Labour a 7/2 chance to snap up both seats on Thursday evening. We expect Keir Starmer’s party to put up a fight in both votes and they are the strong 3/10 favourites to claim Tamworth from the Tories after Chris Pincher’s resignation, with outspoken Conservative candidate Andrew Cooper 5/2 for victory.

“Labour will however have to overcome odds of 11/4 if they are to steal Mid-Bedfordshire from Rishi Sunak’s grasp, with the Tories 4/5 favourites to retain the seat vacated by Nadine Dorries. The Conservatives are 5/1 to retain both seats up for grabs on Thursday, whilst a Labour victory in Tamworth and Tory win in Mid-Bedfordshire is deemed to be the most likely scenario at 5/4.”

Is there an exit poll in Mid Bedfordshire?

While there are no exit polls for by-elections in the way there are at general elections, the political parties usually have some idea of what the result might be. At the count in Central Bedfordshire District Council, they're remaining tight lipped, suggesting it's a close race.

A Lib Dem source told NationalWorld: "I've no idea how it's going to go. We know we've taken a lot of Tory votes in the villages. It feels like Labour's support has hardened in the towns."

While Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine said: “Whatever the outcome, it is clear that the Lib Dem vote has surged in true blue villages across Bedfordshire, as former lifelong Conservative voters choose to send this government a message.

“I am bursting with pride at the campaign Emma Holland-Lindsay has run, which has offered Mid-Bedfordshire a positive and inspiring vision for change. Emma has rolled up her sleeves, ran constituency surgeries whilst the absent Conservative MP was nowhere to be found, and already begun the work of helping local people who have felt badly let down."

A Tory spokesperson added: “These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them. We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.

“It is clear that we have to maintain our focus on people’s immediate priorities whilst taking long-term decisions which will lead to the change this country needs.”

While Pat McFadden, Labour's National Campaign Coordinator, said: "We have known all along that winning these seats would be a long shot, with huge majorities to overturn. The fact that we are even on the pitch is a sign of how far the Labour Party has changed. We are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back.”