Rishi Sunak braced for by-election wipe out as Prime Minister's approval ratings hit record lows

"He's the worst man for the job this country's ever had." Chris Burn did not mince his words when giving his view on Rishi Sunak ahead of Thursday's by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

“He doesn’t care about any of us,” the 75-year-old told NationalWorld in the west London constituency earlier this week. “Why would he? He’s got millions of pounds. He doesn’t understand. He doesn’t care about the country. He needs to go.”

The Conservatives are odds on to lose all three by-elections on Thursday - including two majorities of around 20,000. Expectations are already being managed, with party chairman Greg Hands telling Politico today that “it’s rare for governments to win by-elections".

It's certainly not easy after 13 years of power, but if the Tories lose seats with majorities of 20,137, like Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, in the general election which is due to be held in the next 18 months, they will be wiped out.

So it was awkward timing for YouGov to release polling which showed Britons, like Chris in Uxbridge, did not have a particularly high view of the Prime Minister. His net favourability has tumbled to minus 40, the lowest level since he took office, the polling firm said.

Just a quarter of Britons surveyed by YouGov last week hold a favourable view of the Prime Minister, while two thirds have an unfavourable opinion. Public perception of the Labour leader is far better than that of Sunak, with Sir Keir Starmer’s favourability rating at minus 22. But it has also fallen, having been minus 14 in June.

Labour are hoping to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London, the seat Boris Johnson retired from after the Privileges Committee found he knowingly mislead Parliament, and Selby and Ainsty, after his ally Nigel Adams also quit.

For the North Yorkshire constituency, the party has selected 25-year-old Keir Mather, from Hull, an Oxford politics graduate who worked for a year in the office of Health Secretary Wes Streeting before taking up a role at the London-based business lobbying group, the Confederation of British Industry.

Claire Holmes, a lawyer and councillor for the neighbouring East Riding of Yorkshire council, will stand in for the Conservatives, after the initial candidate Michael Naughton withdrew his nomination due to a family emergency.

Labour are confident of overturning Adams' whopping 20,000 majority, with BonusCodeBets putting Starmer's party at 1/6 to take the seat. And it appears Adams' rapid resignation could cause Holmes some issues. Voters told a focus group organised by Lord Ashcroft that he "didn’t get his honours, did he? So he threw his toys out of the pram and said right, that’s it".

Surprisingly some Labour figures are more confident about taking Selby and Ainsty than Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in their London stronghold, despite it having a much smaller majority.

When NationalWorld reporter Imogen Howse headed to the streets of west London earlier this week, the topic on the tip of most people’s tongues was not Boris Johnson but the Ultra Low Emission Zone. The ULEZ is a scheme which charges heavily polluting vehicles to drive on roads in London, and will imminently expand into the capital’s outer areas.

Hillingdon, where the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is situated, is one of the boroughs which will be affected by the expansion due to take place on 29 August. Discussing this, Chloe Chapman, 31, told NationalWorld that the expansion will “destroy lives”. She told Imogen: “ULEZ has already destroyed things for me and my partner, as we’ve just had a baby and so can’t afford to buy a new car which is compliant. My parents have had to stop driving too, as their car doesn’t meet the rules and they can’t afford to get another one either. I mean, who can at the moment?”

The new mother added that she would vote for whichever candidate is looking to “get rid of” the scheme, before warning that there would be “a huge backlash” in Uxbridge - with people possibly “tearing cameras down” - if the expansion goes ahead as planned this August.

Steve Tuckwell, for the Conservative Party, previously told the Evening Standard that in his five years as a councillor, he has “never come across a single issue that’s generated so much anger, frustration, and annoyance as Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ULEZ".

While ULEZ was introduced by Labour’s London Mayor Sadiq Khan, the party's candidate Danny Beales is hoping he isn't associated with it. Beales has also voiced his opposition to the scheme. Speaking at a hustings event earlier this month, he said it was “not the right time” to expand the scheme into the borough of Hillingdon.

“I think when you speak to families,” he said, “I hear heart-wrenching stories at the moment: carers who have to travel to work and can’t afford to pay for their car and may have to give up their job or they can’t afford to scrap their car with the scrappage scheme available."

Perhaps this is why Khan hasn't been seen campaigning in the constituency as much as could be expected with a London by-election. Indeed yesterday, the Mayor was promoting the ULEZ with the help of former Archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams.

And Labour activists have appeared cagey, when Imogen tried to speak to some campaigning this week - surprisingly they said they weren't allowed to talk to the press. Surely you would want to make Labour's case as much as possible?

In the South West, in Somerton and Frome, Star Sports has given the Liberal Democrats a 99.5% chance of taking the seat from the Conservatives. Resident and NationalWorld late editor Jamie Jones explains the story of the seat: "After an unconvincing performance in 2010, the Conservatives ‘took control’ in 2015 and have kept a tight hold on power ever since. However, allegations of misconduct, sleaze and sloppiness have seen the man in charge step down and a massive majority slipping through that clenched fist.

"But this is not a summary of the Tories in government. It is the story of the West Country constituency of Somerton and Frome."

David Warburton won control of Somerton and Frome in a landslide win during the 2015 election, which saw David Cameron and Ed Milliband go head-to-head. While his party took the helm with a small majority, Warburton presided over an 18-point swing against the Liberal Democrats, securing a 53% share of the vote. In 2017 and 2019, he held his seat convincingly, increasing his share.

However, mirroring the trajectory of the Conservative Party polling - and of Boris Johnson’s premiership - Warburton’s reign was cut short after allegations of sexual harassment against the former music teacher emerged in April 2022, leading to the Conservative whip being suspended and, ultimately, to his resignation.

A Sunday Times report alleged Warburton harassed three women and used cocaine and in a Daily Mail interview upon resigning, he admitted to the drug taking after drinking “incredibly potent Japanese whisky” in a situation his wife described as a “honey trap”. He denied all of the other allegations.

Following a formal complaint by a member of staff in Warburton’s Westminster office, parliament’s Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS) opened an investigation into four allegations of sexual misconduct, and two bullying and harassment claims against him.

However, despite the parliamentary commissioner for standards upholding three of the allegations, the saga rumbles on as earlier this week, the Independent Expert Panel (IEP) found the investigation to be ‘materially and procedurally flawed’, saying it made “no findings on the substance of the complaint” and ordered the commissioner to open a new probe.

But back in Somerset, the 14 months since the allegations emerged have seen discontent grow. Earlier this year, Frome Town Council - one of the emerging cosmopolitan towns in this neck of the woods - unanimously passed a vote of no confidence in Warburton, with councillors accusing him of failing to hold constituency surgeries since his suspension, which he denied.

Calls for his resignation came after a year of absence from Parliament, and more votes of no confidence followed in towns like Langport, before he finally announced his intention to step down last month, claiming he had been denied a fair hearing.

The Somerton and Frome constituency has traditionally been a two-horse race - Liberal Democrats held the seat from 1997, until Warburton’s win in 2015. This time around sees councillor Sarah Dyke running for the Lib Dems, with fellow councillor Faye Purbrick on the ballot for the Conservatives, as the only candidates with a realistic chance.

A huge swing will be needed for Dyke to emerge victorious - Warburton secured a majority of more than 19,000 in 2019 - however all the bookies are pricing this in.

Follow NationalWorld's coverage of the by-elections on our politics site.