UK general election polls latest: who will win 2024 election? YouGov predicts Labour's biggest ever victory

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Find out what the latest opinion polls are predicting about the UK's general election in 2024.

Labour is on course for its biggest ever general election victory, an new poll has predicted.

Despite a flurry a policy announcement on national service and pensions, Rishi Sunak is still waiting for the polls to tighten. And according to one pollster, Keir Starmer is on course for Labour’s biggest ever majority in the House of Commons.

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On top of that, Nigel Farage has returned to the fray to stand in Clacton, with experts thinking this could damage the Tories in a number of tight seats. That hasn’t been taken into account in these polls.

Here we take a look at the latest opinion polls, and analyse who could win the general election.

YouGov - Labour on course for biggest ever majority

Labour is set to win as many as 422 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 140, according to YouGov analysis published on Monday (3 June).

The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Starmer’s party is on course for a majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.

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MRP models the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain by identifying the views of different types of voters and then the type of voters in each seat. In 2017, YouGov successfully used this to predict a hung Parliament.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg are among prominent figures projected to lose their seats.

The data, collected from more than 58,000 people, will make grim reading for Sunak as it shows Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives since March despite a recent policy blitz by the ruling party. Starmer is projected to become prime minister next month with his party clocking up more gains than at any election since 1945, potentially leaving the Tories with their lowest number of MPs since 2001.

The Liberal Democrats would win 48 seats, according to the forecast, with the SNP on 17 and the Green Party gaining another MP. Reform UK is not predicted to win any seats, although this was carried out before Farage announced his return.

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YouGov's first MRP projection of the general election. Credit: YouGovYouGov's first MRP projection of the general election. Credit: YouGov
YouGov's first MRP projection of the general election. Credit: YouGov | YouGov

More in Common - smaller Labour majority but still landslide

A separate MRP analysis, published by More in Common and the News Agents podcast earlier on Monday (3 Jaune), suggested that Labour was on course for its biggest majority in 23 years. That analysis is based on voting intention data collected between April 9 and May 29 from 15,089 adults in Great Britain.

Luke Tryl, the think tank’s UK director, said: “While many things could change between now and 4 July, Labour is on course to win a comfortable majority, with the most Labour gains in a single election since 1945, nearly doubling their seat count compared to 2019.

“The Conservatives on the other hand are forecast to enter opposition holding only marginally more seats than they did after the 1997 landslide, suggesting a steep path to recovery. It’s worth noting however, that there are currently 43 seats that the Conservatives are projected to lose by less than four points, which means any tightening in the race could see a much smaller Labour majority.

“There are also 49 seats which the Conservatives are currently projected to hang on to by just 4%, which means it wouldn’t take much movement for the Conservatives to head to a record defeat, potentially far worse than that seen in 1997.”

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Redfield & Wilton - Tories at joint-lowest level while Sunak is PM

According to Redfield & Wilton's latest poll from 31 May to 2 June, Labour's lead has increased to a whopping 26 points (46%). That’s up three points on the first poll of the general election campaign. The Conservatives vote share equals their lowest ever under Sunak on just 20%.

The party previously reached 20% in Redfield & Wilton’s polling twice: on 21 April this year and on 16 October 2022, shortly after Liz Truss sacked Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng. Only once in this Parliament have the Tories recorded a lower vote share: 19% on 19 October 2022, the day before Liz Truss announced her resignation.

Redfield & Wilton's second poll of the election campaign. Credit: Redfield & WiltonRedfield & Wilton's second poll of the election campaign. Credit: Redfield & Wilton
Redfield & Wilton's second poll of the election campaign. Credit: Redfield & Wilton | Redfield & Wilton

Ipsos - Labour has 21-point lead

Polling company Ipsos has run its political monitor opinion poll since 1978, and recently the Conservatives dropped to their lowest level over that time. Rishi Sunak’s party was left on just 19% in April, however recently recovered to 20% in May.

Ipsos says previous Tory low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and 23%, just after Labour’s landslide win in 1997.

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Labour’s vote share has dropped three points to 41%, however still holds a 21-point lead over the Tories. Notably the Greens and Liberal Democrats have both risen to 11%.

The Ipsos polls. Credit: Ipsos/FlourishThe Ipsos polls. Credit: Ipsos/Flourish
The Ipsos polls. Credit: Ipsos/Flourish | Ipsos/Flourish

One factor that could have a big bearing on the next general election is the growing enthusiasm gap. Only 62% of Conservatives say they are certain to vote, while this rises to 76% with Labour supporters. Ipsos says this “feeds through into the headline voting figure”. 

While neither leader is particularly popular. Only 19% say they are satisfied with Rishi Sunak, while 73% say they are dissatisfied. This net rating is a record low for the Prime Minister. Starmer does not fare much better, with 29% satisfied and 55% dissatisfied.

General election 2024

NationalWorld’s network of reporters across the UK are bringing you the most comprehensive coverage of the 2024 general election. 

Keep up to date with the latest news on our live blog and find all our election stories and explainers here.

Read our own manifesto for the 2024 general election and email [email protected] to let us know the issues which matter most to you.

You’ll need to register to vote on 4 July, there’s more information about that here.

Techne - slight increase for Tories

Techne carried out its latest polling on 29 and 30 May and found the Tories rising slightly to 21%. Labour’s support held steady on 45%, while the Lib Dems dropped below Reform UK on 11%.

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Electoral Calculus - 99% chance Labour forms next government

Electoral Calculus amalgamates all of the latest opinion polls and uses this to work out who would win a general election if it was held today. It claims it has “pioneered advanced regression techniques for analysing polling data”.

If a general election was held on 28 May, Electoral Calculus says that Labour would win 45% of the vote and 485 seats. It gives Labour a 99% chance of winning a majority and a 97% chance of being the largest party. 

Electoral Calculus' election prediction. Credit: Electoral CalculusElectoral Calculus' election prediction. Credit: Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus' election prediction. Credit: Electoral Calculus | Electoral Calculus

It puts the Tories on just 66 seats with just 23% of the vote. Despite predicting Reform UK will win 12% of the vote, Electoral Calculus says its voters will be spread out and it will not win a single seat.

Electoral Calculus said: “Our new MRP poll for the Daily Mail confirms that Labour's lead in the polls would translate into a substantial majority in the House of Commons. Allowing for tactical voting, the Conservatives would only just be larger than the Liberal Democrats in parliament. In Scotland, the SNP also look to be overtaken by Labour.”

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Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.

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