Nasa asteroid hitting Earth: 2024 YR may hit Moon in 2032, says scientist

Nasa’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies, known as Cneos, investigated asteroid 2024 YR4 and last month found that the likelihood of it hitting Earth in 2032 had increased from one per cent to about 2.3 per cent.

But now University of Arizona professor David Rankin says he believes that there is a chance - albeit a small one - of the 90m-wide space rock in fact hitting the Moon. As the Moon has no atmosphere to slow down incoming asteroids, a collision would be relatively greater and could create a crater, which in turn could shower Earth with debris.

Dr Rankin told New Scientist: “There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat.” Scientist.

The asteroid was first spotted on December 27 last year by a telescope in Chile. Last month the initial odds of it hitting Earth were just over one per cent, but this has been revised upwards.

In January Paul Chodas, director of Cneos, said: “We are not worried at all, because of this 99% chance it will miss. But it deserves attention.”

For anyone worrying about extinction events, 2024 YR4, at between 40 and 100 metres wide, and likely 90m, is a baby compared to some asteroids. The rock which hit earth and is thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs was between 10km and 15km. But... while Earth gets hit by an asteroid this size every few thousand years, according to ESA, it still carries the potential for severe damage. That is why this one now tops ESA’s asteroid risk list.

However, this doesn’t mean that scientists are not keeping a close eye on 2024 YR4, which is currently heading away from Earth. As the asteroid’s path around the sun becomes better understood, Mr Chodas and others said there is a good chance the risk to Earth could drop to zero.

The asteroid will gradually fade from view over the next few months, according to Nasa and the European Space Agency.

Until then, some of the world’s most powerful telescopes will keep monitoring it to better determine its size and path. Once out of sight, it will not be visible until it passes our way again in 2028.

The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day - passing within roughly 500,000 miles (800,000km) of Earth, about twice the distance to the moon. It was discovered two days later.

Mr Chodas said scientists are poring over sky surveys from 2016, when predictions show the asteroid also ventured close. If scientists can find the space rock in images from then, they should be able to determine whether it will hit or miss the planet, he told The Associated Press.

“If we don’t find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,” he said.

The potential impact would occur on December 22 2032. It is too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth. The good news, according to Nasa, is that for now, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above one per cent.