Turkey elections 2023: when will result be known, is Recep Erdogan ahead - what are voting figures so far?

Turkey’s tight presidential election is heading for a run-off, as neither incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Kemal Kilicdaroglu hit 50% of the vote.

Strongman Erdogan, 69, has been the President of Turkey for the last nine years - and has steadily given himself more power and cracked down on freedom of expression . He first won in 2014 as leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), with a healthy lead of more than 13% over his closest opponent, and in 2018 maintained a similar lead of around 12%.

However, this year's election has been much closer as Erdogan has faced criticism in recent months, particularly over his handling of the earthquakes in February which are estimated to have caused the deaths of more than 50,000 Turks, and made several million homeless.

Support grew for the opposition leader Kilicdaroglu, 74, of the Republican People's Party (CHP), who was expected to take around 50% of the vote in some pre-election polls. And while Kilicdaroglu hasn’t performed that well as votes continue to be counted, it looks like this will be by far Erdogan's tightest election result.

This is what we know about the 2023 Turkey election results so far:

What are the results of the Turkey elections so far?

According to the Turkish state news agency Anadolu, more than 99% of the votes were counted by Monday afternoon. Voting is compulsory in Turkey (though not enforced) and there are around 64 million eligible voters in the country. There are also about a million votes being counted abroad. With only 36,000 votes from overseas still to count, it was impossible for either candidates to hit the 50% mark.

Turkey's Supreme Election Council has said that Erdogan is on 49.5%, with Kilicdaroglu on 44.9%. As neither candidate reached 50% there will be a run off in two weeks' time on 28 May. The two main leaders will be hoping to win votes off third-placed candidate, the ultranationalist Sinan Ogan - who received 5.2% of the vote.

What have the candidates said?

Speaking to supporters in Ankara, Erdogan, said earlier this morning he would respect the nation’s decision if the race went to a run-off vote in two weeks.

“If our nation has chosen for a second round, that is also welcome,” Erdogan said. “The fact that the election results have not yet been finalised does not diminish the fact that our nation’s choice is clearly in favour of us," he added.

While Kilicdaroglu said: “Despite all of his lies and attacks, Erdogan did not receive the desired outcome. No one should be enthusiastic about this being a done deal.

“We will definitely, definitely win this election in the second round. Everyone will see it. Preliminary results show Erdogan did not receive the public confidence vote that he expected. The need for a change in society exceeds 50%. If the nation opts for a second round, it is more than welcome.”

Despite his fighting talk, the result will be a bitter disappointment for Kilicdaroglu. Opposition parties had gone into the election with real hope of removing Erdogan from power, following a series of crises, however it looks like he will hold on to the Presidency comfortably, even with a run off.

This year’s election comes in the same year Tukey marks the centenary of its establishment as a republic — a modern, secular state born on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. Yet Turkey has seen the suppression of freedom of expression and assembly under Erdogan, and it is wracked by a steep cost-of-living crisis that critics blame on the government’s mishandling of the economy.

The country is also reeling from the effects of a powerful earthquake that caused devastation in 11 southern provinces in February, killing more than 50,000 people in unsafe buildings. Erdogan’s government has been criticised for its delayed and stunted response to the disaster, as well as a lax implementation of building codes that exacerbated the casualties and misery.

Internationally, the elections were being watched closely as a test of a united opposition’s ability to dislodge a leader who has concentrated nearly all state powers in his hands.