Illegal Migration Bill: how much would it cost the Home Office to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda?

Every asylum seeker forcibly removed to a third country such as Rwanda could cost the taxpayer nearly £170,000, according to the government’s own estimates.

The Home Office’s long-awaited economic impact assessment of Rishi Sunak and Suella Braverman’s Illegal Migration Bill, which is currently making its way through Parliament, conceded that ministers do not actually know the overall costs of implementing their plans to detain and deport anyone deemed to have arrived in the UK ‘illegally’ - but that some estimates suggest it could be as much as £169,000 per person.

The document, published on Monday (26 June), explained that the reason it was “not possible” to assess whether the controversial legislation would be value for public money was because it could not “estimate with precision the level of deterrence the bill might achieve”.

However, while it then argued that the policy of sending migrants to Rwanda could save between £106,000 and £165,000 per person, it admitted these figures were “highly uncertain” - and explained that the Illegal Migration would need to deter nearly two in five asylum seekers from crossing the Channel if it was to break even. If this does not happen, the policy could end up costing the taxpayer more than the amount it currently costs to keep migrants in the UK.

Here’s everything you need to know about what was revealed in the government’s economic assessment of the Illegal Migration Bill - including how much it costs to detain and deport asylum seekers in comparison with how much it costs to house them in the UK.

How much does the government currently spend on asylum seekers?

Home Office estimates in February concluded that, with more than 45,000 migrants in hotels, the asylum system is currently costing the UK £5.6 million a day - or approximately £2 billion a year. This is more than in 2022, when estimates said that £1.5 billion a year was being spent. At the time, the Home Office said this cost was “the highest amount in over two decades”.

In its economic assessment of the Illegal Migration Bill, the Home Office has estimated that £106,000 is spent on housing support for each individual asylum seeker. However, it added that when one takes into account the possibility of housing costs continuing to increase, this number could rise to £165,000.

How much would it cost to send asylum seekers to Rwanda?

The government has calculated that it could cost around £169,000 to send each asylum seeker to a third country, such as Rwanda. This is broken down into:

• £105,000 paid to the third country
• £22,000 spent on the flight
• £18,000 spent on Home Office “resources”
• £7,000 spent on detaining the asylum seeker in the UK before deportation
• £1,000 spent by the Ministry of Justice

This means that, as it stands, it would cost more to send a migrant to a third country such as Rwanda than to keep them in the UK.

However, the Home Office argued that between £106,000 and £165,000 of this total cost could be saved on accommodation - with the higher figure taking into account the possibility that the cost of housing will continue to rise.

It added that even more could be saved if the Illegal Migration Bill proves successful in stopping small boats crossings in the first place, but conceded that all numbers are “highly uncertain” - and that 37% of migrants would need to be deterred from crossing the Channel if there was to be no cost to the taxpayer.

What has the reaction been?

Responding to the government’s economic impact assessment, Christina Marriott, executive director of strategy and communications at the British Red Cross, said: “This legislation should play no part in our asylum system, which is meant to offer safety to men, women, and children fleeing war and persecution. These figures show it may also add a huge burden to the taxpayer at a time when families across the UK are already being squeezed by the cost of living.”

She added that there is also “no evidence” that the policy will deter people from seeking safety in the UK, meaning “the only thing we can be certain of” is that the Illegal Migration Bill will be “expensive”. Instead, the Red Cross suggested this estimated £169,000 should be invested in “an efficient asylum system” - which could be achieved by tackling the backlog and creating safe routes.

Enver Solomon, CEO at Refugee Council, also criticised the document - claiming it “fails to evaluate the true costs and consequences of the [Illegal Migration Bill]”. He continued: “It does very little to predict the actual cost of implementing the bill, and offers no estimates of the number of arrivals after the bill becomes law.

“The Home Office admits in this assessment that it does not know how much of a deterrent effect the bill will actually have, yet it still relies on this assumption to claim financial savings will be made.”

Meanwhile, the Home Secretary called on MPs to support her legislation, arguing that the assessment “shows that doing nothing is not an option”. Braverman continued: “We cannot allow a system to continue which incentivises people to risk their lives and pay people-smugglers to come to this country illegally, while placing an unacceptable strain on the UK taxpayer.”

But the economic impact assessment proved unpopular with opposition parties, with shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper labelling it a “complete joke”. She remarked: “By its own admission, this failing Conservative Party government is totally clueless on how much this bill will cost or what the impact of any of its policies will be.

“They are taking the country for fools. The few figures the Home Office has produced show how chaotic and unworkable their plans are,” the Labour Party MP concluded.

Judges are due to hand down their judgement on the government’s plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda on Thursday (29 June), after the first scheduled flight was stalled following an intervention from the European Court of Human Rights.