Scottish Independence polls: what are the latest opinion polls, and when could a second referendum take place?

A second referendum could be on the table after First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced plans to hold a new vote

<p>Polling since 2014 has shown changes to support for Scottish independence. (Credit: Getty Images)</p>

Polling since 2014 has shown changes to support for Scottish independence. (Credit: Getty Images)

The topic of Scottish Independence is once again on the minds of voters in Scotland, after Nicola Strugeon announced plans to hold a second referendum next year.

The First Minister and leader of the SNP has said that her government will seek to hold a legal vote in 2023.

Westminster has remained strong in its stance that it will not grant the section 30 order which will allow a legal vote to take place, with the SNP possibly facing a fight in the court to hold the vote.

Polling since 2014 has shown changes to support for Scottish independence. (Credit: Getty Images)

Ms Sturgeon has said that the Scottish public has provided her party with the mandate to hold the vote by voting the SNP into power.

But how has support for the campaign changed since the last referendum was held in 2014?

What are polls saying about support for Scottish Independence?

Currently, the polls indicate that the Scottish public would be likely to return a ‘No’ result.

According to Survation polling from March 2022, 53% of voters would choose to remain within the United Kingdom, while 47% of voters would choose to leave.

Major political events appear to have an affect on the feeling of the voting population.

Opinium and ComRes polling from December 2021 - prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and amid the Partygate fallout - showed even support, with the Ipsos Mori showing the ‘Yes’ campaign pulling out in front with 55% of support.

Take a look at out interactive tracker to see how opinions have changed in the past few years.


How has support for Scottish Independence changed since 2014?

In 2014, the Scottish Independence Referendum return a result of 55% for ‘No’, while 45% voted for ‘Yes’.

As previously mentions, major political events often have an impact on support for either side of the campaign, and the past six years in UK politics have not been the quietest.

In the aftermath of the vote, support remained on the side of the union, with the Yes campaign only overtaking the No campaign once amid the Brexit vote.

While the UK as a whole voted to leave the European Union (EU), when the votes were seperated out by nation, Scotland had actually voted to remain.

The Yes campaign caught up in late 2019, after Boris Johnson became Prime Minister of the UK.

This support continued to increase after the UK formally left the EU in early 2020.

Since this point, both sides of the debate have taken the lead periodically, with events such as Partygate and the Covid appearing to affect polling.

(Credit: NationalWorld)

When could a second referendum take place?

The SNP have confirmed their route map to a second referendum on Scottish Independence.

The proposed date of a legal vote is 19 October 2023.

The route map laid out by Ms Sturgeon detailed that Westminster should allow a section 30 order to be granted in order for the vote to be held on this date.

Ms Sturgeon says that the Scottish people had delivered a mandate to the Scottish Government for a vote to be held, and that any resistance from Westminster, or any potential legal action as a result, could delay the vote from the proposed date.