Polar vortex collapse weather: Disruption could bring colder weather to UK mid-March, forecasters warn

While the most severe impacts are likely to be felt in North America, where extreme winter weather is expected, meteorologists suggest that the UK and parts of Europe could also experience a shift towards colder and more unsettled conditions.

The polar vortex is a large system of cold air rotating around the Earth’s poles, closely linked to the jet stream. When this vortex weakens, as is predicted to happen over the coming weeks, it can push Arctic air further south, triggering sudden changes in weather patterns. This event, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), involves a rapid rise in temperatures in the stratosphere, which can disrupt the vortex and affect conditions at the surface.

AccuWeather’s Lead Meteorologist Paul Pastelok told The Independent: “We are predicting a displacement of the polar vortex on the Europe and eastern Canada side of the polar.” He added, “When the Polar Vortex is disrupted - whether stretched, displaced, or split - it can, but does not always, impact this polar jet stream.”

The UK Met Office has also acknowledged the potential for an impact, noting that while SSW events do not always influence surface weather, they can lead to prolonged cold spells. “SSWs don’t always impact our weather but if they do it can take a few weeks before impacts might be felt on the earth’s surface,” the Met Office told The Independent. “If this happens, this would act as a factor in favouring blocked/slowly evolving patterns for the remainder of March and could bring colder weather to the UK.”

According to the Met Office forecast for mid-March (March 10-19), it suggests a mix of conditions across the UK. “Cloudy with outbreaks of rain in places on Monday, the rain easing and clearing southwards during the course of the day. Clearer weather with sunny spells and a few coastal showers will follow from the north.

“These clearer conditions will become established across the whole of the UK by Tuesday as high pressure builds from the northwest. This will lead to fine and dry conditions for many through the rest of next week, although a few showers are likely along coasts.

“Temperatures will likely be below normal. Through the following weekend and into the week after, conditions may slowly become milder and more changeable with some unsettled spells bringing periods of rain and strong winds.”

The polar vortex warning comes amid reports suggesting there will be a widespread snowfall event on March 11, covering an area stretching from Brighton on the south coast up to Newcastle.