Soviet spacecraft launched for Venus mission to crash down on Earth - where will it land?

The Soviet Union launched the spacecraft known as Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never made it out of Earth orbit because of a rocket malfunction.

Most of it came tumbling down within a decade. But experts believe the landing capsule itself – a spherical object about 3ft in diameter – has been circling the world in a highly elliptical orbit for the past 53 years, gradually dropping in altitude.

It is quite possible that the 1,000lb-plus (nearly 500kg) spacecraft will survive re-entry. It was built to withstand a descent through the carbon dioxide-thick atmosphere of Venus.

Experts doubt the parachute system would work after so many years. The heat shield may also be compromised after so long in orbit.

It would be better if the heat shield fails, which would cause the spacecraft to burn up during its dive through the atmosphere, the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics’ Jonathan McDowell said in an email.

But if the heat shield holds, “it’ll re-enter intact and you have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky”.

At the time of publication, it is unknown exactly where the spacecraft will land when it arrives back on Earth. However, some theories about where it could crash down have started to surface.

The spacecraft could re-enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, or as far north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, almost all the way down to South America’s Cape Horn.

Although the most likely outcome is that it lands in water, with a 1/10,000 chance that it hits a person - lower than the chance of being struck by lightning. But one scientist has forecast where the spacecraft could hit if it lands in the UK.

Dr Marco Langbroek, who monitors objects in orbit at Delft University of Technology, has identified three UK towns and cities that could be affected. Talking to the Daily Mail, he said: “We have pinpointed the probable landing strip between 52 north and south latitude. The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero.”

The three towns that could be affected are Milton Keynes, Cambridge and Ipswich.