Nicola Bulley: ‘main hypothesis’ in missing mum disappearance as police address crime speculation

There is “no evidence” of a crime or third party involvement in the disappearance of Nicola Bulley, police have said.

Lancashire Police addressed “ill-informed speculation” into the case of the missing mum-of-two and said detectives have considered a range of hypotheses.

Ms Bulley disappeared while walking her springer spaniel Willow in the village of St Michael’s on Wyre after she dropped her two daughters, aged six and nine, at school on 27 January.

Nearly 40 detectives have sifted through hundreds of hours of CCTV, dashcam footage and tip-offs from the public since she vanished, but after almost three weeks the 45-year-old has still not been found.

Lancashire Police Assistant Chief Constable Peter Lawson defended his force’s investigation in a press conference on Wednesday (15 February) and addressed some of the “false information, accusations and rumours” regarding Ms Bulley’s disappearance.

Mr Lawson said: “There is no evidence to indicate a criminal aspect or third-party involvement in Nicola’s disappearance.”

He added: “We’ve shared more detail in this conference than would normally be the case but we intended, by doing so – both in terms of the scale of the investigation and the resources and the intensity of it and something around Nicola’s vulnerabilities – that we are able to counter some of… the ill-informed speculation and conjecture that has at times distracted the investigation from what ought to have been its priorities.

“It has been a distraction. That is potentially damaging to the investigation, the community of St Michael’s and most importantly Nicola’s family.”

Senior investigating officer Detective Superintendent Rebecca Smith said Ms Bulley was designated a “high-risk” missing person because of a “number of specific vulnerabilities”, adding that her “main working hypothesis” was still that she fell into the River Wyre.

The force believes the mortgage adviser fell in the river during a “10-minute window” between 9.10am and 9.20am on the day she disappeared. She said: “As any senior investigating officer does, you form a number of hypotheses – that is scenarios which are possible from the information to hand.

“Those hypotheses included the one that she possibly could have gone into the river, that there could have been third-party involvement and lastly, that she could have left the area voluntarily. Those hypotheses have remained in place throughout, are reviewed regularly.”

Commenting on Ms Bulley’s “vulnerabilities”, Detective Smith said the force was made aware of these after speaking to Nicola’s partner, Paul Ansell. When asked about what those vulnerabilities were, she refused to go into detail out of respect to Ms Bulley’s family and the “unimaginable pain and distress” they are going through

She added: “I’m not going to go into the details of those individual vulnerabilities. I’ve asked you to respect the family, who are going through unimaginable pain and distress at this moment. But those vulnerabilities based our decision-making in terms of grading Nicola as high risk and have continued to form part of my investigation throughout.”

Asked if she hoped to find her alive, Detective Smith said: “I hope with all my heart that we find Nicola Bulley alive more than anything.”

Addressing “persistent myths” about the case, she confirmed police have searched the derelict house on the other side of the river three times, with the permission of the owner, and Ms Bulley is not there.

Detective Smith also said a red van that was spotted in the area where Ms Bulley went missing is not being treated as suspicious.

She added: “We’re really grateful to members of the public for ringing into the inquiry, we wouldn’t have got this far without everyone’s help. But it’s also really obvious that we are being inundated with false information, accusations and rumours which is distracting us from our work.”

Ms Bulley has still not been found despite extensive searching of the river and surrounding area. Detectives extended the search for her to the sea on 3 February, saying finding her there “becomes more of a possibility”.