Who could replace Rishi Sunak as Tory leader? Suella Braverman and Penny Mordaunt make conference pitches

Well sorry Kemi, we’re going to speculate away - as many Conservative Cabinet ministers definitely put themselves in the frame at the Tory Party Conference in Manchester, in case Rishi Sunak does not survive the next general election.

The conference was notable for the adulation around Nigel Farage and Liz Truss, more on them later, as the party appears to have moved further to the right. There was often more attention at these fringe events touting tax cuts than the main stage.

Ministers very much played into the culture wars, with almost every speech - be it health, home affairs or science and technology - cracking down on transgender rights or going to “war on woke”. Some even flirted with conspiracy theories, as Mark Harper claimed councils could “decide how often you go to the shops, and ration who uses the roads and when” with “sinister 15-minute city plans”.

And a lot of this was designed to appeal to the members ahead of a potential leadership election in a year’s time. So who are the runners and riders putting themselves forward to replace Rishi Sunak at conference?

Suella Braverman

Most notable of course was Suella Braverman. The Home Secretary managed to bag the longest speech of Cabinet members, and played up to the members with typically hardline rhetoric. Having run for leader when Liz Truss won, Braverman will be sure to mount a challenge if the Tories lose the election.

Braverman warned of a “hurricane” of mass migration and said “millions” of people would try to enter the UK. This came after a visit to the US, where she said illegal immigration posed an “existential threat” to the West and that multiculturalism had failed.

And unlike many Cabinet speeches, the exhibition hall was full - with people forced to stand in the aisles. More than half the room gave her a standing ovation at the end, with football style chants of “Bra-ver-man, Bra-ver-man”. It certainly appeared like she was making a future leadership pitch.

However, while the Home Secretary would likely do well with the members, whether she makes it to the run-off is another matter. In the Tory election contest, MPs vote until there are only two candidates left - and then members get the final vote.

In the Manchester Convention Centre, not all Tories were happy with the Home Secretary. During her speech, the leader of London Assembly Conservatives, Andrew Boff, fairly quietly said “there’s no such thing as gender ideology”, and was escorted out of the hall by police. 

Boff told reporters the Home Secretary had been “vilifying” gay people in her speech as he was removed from conference. Afterwards Braverman said he should be readmitted.

Sitting in front of me in the hall was stony-faced Iain Dale, the LBC presenter who is a prominent Conservative in the media. He didn’t clap Braverman once, and certainly didn’t stand during the ovation. MPs tend to be more centrist than members and it strikes me that for a chunk of the Parliamentary party, the language Braverman uses is far too incendiary.

Kemi Badenoch

One of the MPs who would like Braverman to tone down her language is fellow Cabinet member and Tory leadership hopeful Kemi Badenoch. She told a fringe event hosted by the Spectator that politicians needed to be careful about how immigration policies are discussed.

Badenoch said: “We live in a multiracial society. We’re very, very comfortable with that because if we weren’t you wouldn’t have a prime minister that we have, we wouldn’t have the Home Secretary or the Business Secretary that we have.

“But we have to be very careful about how we explain and express immigration policies, so that people aren’t getting echoes of things that were less palatable.”

Despite this, Badenoch is very comfortable using culture wars to appeal to the right of the party - and spoke about identity politics and transgender rights in her main speech.

She said advocates of identity politics are seeking to “re-racialise” society, and claimed Labour wanted to “bend the knee before this altar of intolerance”. She once again slammed critical race theory, which is an academic concept originating in the US which says racism has been embedded in public policy. 

Critics of the Business and Trade Secretary say there is little depth to her politics. One MP told the Telegraph: “Can you name me one thing she stands for apart from taking on the woke mob?”

However Badenoch looks well placed for the leadership contest, appealing to MPs and members, as was shown at a conference event where she was serenaded with chants of “Kemi for PM”.

Penny Mordaunt

The Leader of the House of Commons shot to public fame when she carried a ceremonial sword during King Charles’ coronation. The Portsmouth North MP served in the Royal Navy Reserve for nine years, which is sure to go down well with the Tory faithful.

Initially, to the left of the party - Mordaunt originally supported transgender rights, although she rowed back on this during the previous leadership contest. She’s still likely to attract more centrist MPs concerned about the culture war tone of Braverman and Badenoch.

Mordaunt was the warm-up act for Rishi Sunak, and in a definite pitch for the leadership she gave a tub-thumping speech, invoking her naval roots, urging members to “stand up and fight”.

She said the Conservatives are known for “courage” and “standing up to bullies” and had fought off Nazism and socialism. In a slightly surreal ending to her speech, she repeated “stand up and fight” more than a dozen times while pacing the stage and gesticulating wildly.

Commentators said the speech summed up Mordaunt perfectly, a charismatic and effective communicator with little to say of substance. At conference, despite her more centrist origins, members treated her with celebrity status. A colleague of mine at a reception Mordaunt was speaking at said it was so busy she had to stand on a chair, and the Tory activists “were feral”.

James Cleverly

The Foreign Secretary is one of the bookies’ favourites to take over from Sunak, after Badenoch and Mordaunt, and looks likely to run. He appears to be taking a more understated approach, focusing on appearing statesmanlike. 

This could play well with MPs, but hit his votes with members if he makes it through to the run off. However, he was prepared to move onto the Home Secretary’s ground at conference, saying he personally wrote to senior diplomats and instructed “each and every one of them” to step up to the plate to stop people smuggling.

Trying to steal the limelight from Braverman, he said when it comes to stopping the boats, ministers have to continue to co-operate “not just across government, but with our international allies as well”.

He went on: “We have collaborated closely with the governments of the countries where these inhumane people-smuggling gangs are based.”

Wildcards: Liz Truss and Nigel Farage

Despite her disastrous spell as Prime Minister, the shortest in history, there are whispers of a Truss comeback. Right wing MPs and activists are desperate for tax cuts, despite the mini-budget, and all Rishi Sunak said was “the best tax cut I can give to people is to halt inflation and ease the cost of living crisis”.

Truss scheduled her fringe speech on - you guess it - growth for the same time as Jeremy Hunt’s address in the auditorium, and activists and journalists queued for 90 minutes to listen to her repeat the same messages that propelled her to win the previous leadership vote.

While allies are whispering she may mount a comeback, it’s still highly unlikely. And while she still seems to retain support among the members, there’s no way MPs will vote her through to the run-off.

Even more of a wildcard than Truss is Nigel Farage, who currently couldn’t run to be leader as he is not a Tory MP (or even a member for that matter). The Brexiteer was followed around the Conservative conference by a crowd of acolytes, a sign that the party has swung to the right.

Rishi Sunak said Farage could rejoin the Conservative Party, which he was a member of from 1978 to 1992, however the former Ukip leader denied he would. Farage has tried and failed to get elected to Parliament seven times, and a chance under the Tories to make it to the House of Commons would be tempting for him

If he did he would be a popular candidate amongst Tory members, however like Braverman and Truss would struggle to command enough support amongst MPs to make it to the membership vote.