Constitution Hill given 54.6% chance of regaining Champion Hurdle title at Cheltenham - ahead of Brighterdaysahead

As a premier contest for elite two-mile hurdlers, the race has been won by some of the greatest names in jump racing, including three-time winners See You Then and Istabraq.

Ahead of the highly anticipated showdown on Tuesday, March 12th (3:30 pm), the Irish Racing SuperComputer has crunched the numbers to forecast the likely outcome of the Grade 1 event.

The data-driven analysis gives Constitution Hill, 2023’s dominant winner, the highest probability of victory at 54.6%, reaffirming Nicky Henderson’s charge to claim back the title from State Man, who romped home last year.

Champion Hurdle SuperComputer Predictions

Constitution Hill – 54.6% chance of victory

Brighterdaysahead – 30.2% chance of victory

State Man – 10.3% chance of victory

Burdett Road – 2.7% chance of victory

Winter Fog - 1.4% chance of victory

The Irish have claimed victory in seven of the last 13 renewals, but Britain struck back in 2023 with Constitution Hill’s sensational win. If Henderson’s superstar delivers again, it would mark his fifth Champion Hurdle triumph in the last eight years.

While Constitution Hill leads the charge, strong contenders such as Brighterdaysahead (30.2%) and State Man (10.3%) are expected to push for a podium finish.

Unsurprisingly, Brighterdaysahead, with a 30% probability of winning the race, is seen as the primary threat.

The SuperComputer is a probability model, not determined by human predictions or bias. What happens is the SuperComputer estimates the outcome of the race based on a horse’s current strength (based on factors such as conditions, weight, jockey, trainer and form) and betting market odds.

The machine then simulates the remaining games in a season 1,000 times and constructs an average league table from the 1,000 simulations, to rule out anomalous results.