Mbappe revealed as football's next GOAT by Oxford mathematician

The ‘greatest of all time’ debate has divided the football world for a generation of fans, as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo put forward their irrepressible cases.

Whilst both legends are still leaving their mark on the beautiful game, the battle to take their crown is seeing a raft of Next Gen G.O.A.T. contenders emerge to take their position at the pantheon of world football.

Oxford mathematician Dr Tom Crawford has revamped his algorithm to identify Kylian Mbappé as the game’s new leading light, with an index score of 86 seeing him top the G.O.A.T. Index 2.0 rankings.

The France talisman takes the lead ahead of a surprise challenger, with former Manchester City talent Julian Álvarez (84) holding off a host of talent including English megastar Jude Bellingham (82) and ex-teammate Erling Haaland (81).

The G.O.A.T. Index 2.0, commissioned by LiveScore, one of the world’s leading providers of real-time sports updates, builds on the original research that crowned Cristiano Ronaldo the all-time winner in 2021, and uses a sophisticated mathematical model from Dr Tom Crawford to evaluate the achievements and potential of global footballers under the age of 25.

Each player is ranked according to a range of performance metrics, utilising factors such as international and domestic goals and titles and individual honours and career milestones.

A key innovation for the new G.O.A.T Index 2.0 is the ‘G.O.A.T. Curve’ , which is used to predict a player’s career trajectory, analysing whether it aligns more closely with the ‘Ronaldo Curve,’ characterised by an s-shaped trajectory, with fluctuations in performance due to early club changes and transfers, or the ‘Messi Curve,’ a straight line indicating consistent high performance.

By analysing these curves, alongside all other metrics, Dr Crawford can predict each player’s future potential based on their career path and achievements.

While Mbappé, Phil Foden, and Lamine Yamal follow the Messi Curve, Bellingham, Haaland and Álvarez exhibit characteristics of the Ronaldo Curve.

Click here to see Dr Tom Crawford Unveil The G.O.A.T. Index on LiveScore’s YouTube Channel

This analysis places Álvarez in second place with a G.O.A.T. Index score of 72, just behind Mbappé, who leads with 86. At 25, Les Blues’ captain is already one of football’s global superstars.

At 24, Álvarez has quietly built an equally impressive trophy haul with Argentina and Manchester City, including a World Cup, two Copa Américas, a UEFA Champions League title, and two Premier League winner’s medals. The now Atlético Madrid forward also became the first player to win a World Cup and a continental treble in the same season in 2023.

Dominic Vye, Marketing Director at LiveScore, said: "As football fans, we've all been captivated by the achievements of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, but we now enter a new era of our favourite players closely contesting for the ultimate individual awards.

“As a leading and reliable source of football data and insight, we want to fuel fans’ passion for the sport they love, and that’s why we’re delighted to once again work with Dr Tom Crawford to answer football’s next greatest question.”

Dr Tom Crawford, Mathematician at the University of Oxford, added: “As a massive football fan, I’ve watched Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi battle it out for many years. It’s now incredibly exciting to identify who of the next generation will take their place at the very top of the game, as a new debate grips fans.

“It’s no surprise to see players like Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham come out on top of my algorithm, but to also see perhaps more unexpected players is really exciting and I can’t wait to see what the future truly holds for the sport.”

To see how Dr Tom Crawford created The G.O.A.T. Index 2.0 for LiveScore, click here.