How long could Russia’s war on Ukraine last? Potential timeline and duration of conflict explained

The international community has looked on in horror as Ukrainian civilians and troops come under attack from Russian troops.

Troops moved into the country in late february, with casualties on both sides of the fight starting to build up.

Conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing for some time but the full-scale invasion has elevated it to a higher prominence.

But how long could the conflict last, and when did conflict start between the two nations?

When did Russia invade Ukraine?

Russian troops moved into Ukraine in the early hours of 24 February 2022.

It came after conflict in the separatist Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, however many Western leaders believe that ‘false flag operations’ undertaken by Russia in these areas is what gave pretext to a full invasion.

The two sides have been fighting for years in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

When did the Russo-Ukrainian War begin?

Russia previously annexed Crimea on 20 February 2014, almost eight years to the day that it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

It was this annexation that began the Russo-Ukrainian War.

During the past eight years, conflict has been concentrated in the Donbas region, with Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists frequently facing off.

It was in these separatist regions that Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukrainian forces of committing “genocide” of a large Russian-speaking minority, shortly before he invaded the neighbouring country.

However, shelling attacks which took place shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine were believed to be false flag operation in an attempt for President Putin to give pretext to invasion.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg were among those to accuse Russia of creating such attacks.

How long will the war in Ukraine last?

Although it may not be accurate, US officials have briefed what their intel has told them so far in terms in of a timeline for the conflict.

The White House believed that Russian force may take another seven days to surround Kyiv, and another four to six weeks for the capital to fall to Russia.

The US did however say that intel does not yet show whether the Russians are currently trying to slowly break down Kyiv’s defences or whether a more direct combat approach would be taken.

Russian progression in the conflict has been slower than expected, with Ukrainian forces putting up a fierce fightback.

US lawmakers have also been briefed that the war in Ukraine could last another 10 to 20 years.

This was backed up by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who stated the same timeline.

A message from the editor:

Thank you for reading. NationalWorld is a new national news brand, produced by a team of journalists, editors, video producers and designers who live and work across the UK. Find out more about who’s who in the team, and our editorial values. We want to start a community among our readers, so please follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, and keep the conversation going. You can also sign up to our email newsletters and get a curated selection of our best reads to your inbox every day.