BAFTAs 2023: who will win and who should win, from This Is Going to Hurt to Bad Sisters

This weekend, the British Academy Television Awards are being held at the Royal Festival Hall in London. Rob Beckett and Romesh Ranganathan will host as the best television of 2022 (in theory) is celebrated.

Leading the nominations are crime drama The Responder and medical drama This Is Going to Hurt with six nominations each, while Apple TV+ drama Bad Sisters and Netflix’s The Crown follow shortly behind them at five nominations apiece. 

Here’s a full breakdown of who will win the BAFTAs – and, more importantly, who should win them.

Who will win? It’s between Martin Freeman’s police drama The Responder and David Morrissey’s police drama Sherwood, but more likely The Responder will win – it’s picked up more nominations than any other show, so there’s clearly a lot of fondness for it. 

Who should win? Bad Sisters was one of my favourite shows of last year, and to my mind the most deserving of the win, but – given it was on Apple TV+ – it’s nice just to see it nominated, really. It could be nice too to see Somewhere Boy win, as the only non-crime drama to make the least, and a somewhat plausible upset.

Who will win? This Is Going to Hurt is the clear front runner here. If there’s going to be an upset, Mood feels more likely than either of the ITV entries – Nicole Lecky’s BBC Three series got a lot of “next Fleabag” buzz when it arrived, and that could bear out here. (Although, you know, it won’t, this is going to This Is Going to Hurt.)

Who should win? This Is Going to Hurt is a very deserving front runner, it has to be said, and it’d be hard to argue for a win for the others. 

Who will win? Hard to say for sure between The Bear and The White Lotus – both very popular in their own right – but I’d expect The White Lotus to take it. 

Who should win? Pachinko, probably. 

Who will win? Kate Winslet for I Am Ruth feels like the frontrunner, although I’m perhaps only saying that because I can’t bring myself to acknowledge the nomination for Imelda Staunton, given how little she in fact appeared in The Crown Season 5.

Who should win? As Suzie Pickles, Billie Piper gave the best performance of her career, and it’d be great to see that rewarded with a BAFTA.

Who will win? Interestingly, this is the only category where This Is Going to Hurt and The Responder – who lead nominations across the awards – come up against one another. I’d expect Martin Freeman to take it over Ben Whishaw: two equally impressive performances, but one that’s a little more ostentatiously transformative in a way that BAFTA will probably favour. 

Who should win? I would probably give it to Whishaw, but equally it’s hard to say Freeman is undeserving, so. 

Who will win? Am I Going to Be Unreasonable was a great showcase for Daisy May Cooper, if not straightforwardly a comic one – I’d expect Siobhán McSweeney to get a bit of a boost given it’s the last time she’ll play Sister Michael. (Derry Girls also picked up some awards at the craft BAFTAs, if that’s an indication of momentum at all.) 

Who should win? Diane Morgan for Philomena Cunk (though I would also just like to say I thought Taj Atwal was the best part of Hullraisers). 

Who will win? Jon Pointing.

Who should win? Hopefully Jon Pointing – he really is that good in Big Boys.

Who will win? I’d expect Will Sharpe to win for The White Lotus (my suspicion is that, had Evan Peters played that role as was once planned, you wouldn’t see The White Lotus represented at the BAFTAs at all), but Adeel Akhtar for Sherwood also feels distinctly plausible.

Who should win? Samuel Bottomley was great in Somewhere Boy, giving a very generous supporting performance, which seems worth rewarding here (especially given the borderline category fraud that’s going on elsewhere – Jack Lowden is the lead of Slow Horses!)

Who will win? Lesley Manville.

Who should win? Bad Sisters wouldn’t work anywhere near as well as it did without Anne-Marie Duff – it’s great to see her nominated, but it’d be even better to see her win too. 

Who will win? I’d be shocked if it wasn’t Claudia Winkleman, after the popularity of The Traitors. The only plausible upset feels like Big Zuu, but it’ll be Claudia Winkleman.

Who should win? Not everyone could’ve made The Traitors as successful as Claudia Winkleman did. (I certainly couldn’t, which admittedly doesn’t say much, but still.) 

Who will win? It’ll be Derry Girls – Lisa McGee won the award for best comedy writer at the BAFTA Craft awards a few nights ago. 

Who should win? The final episode of Big Boys, with Jack and Danny on the beach, remains one of my favourite bits of writing from 2022, and I’d like to see it pick up this award. 

Who will win? Friday Night Live – back on television for the first time in decades – feels like the one to watch here. 

Who should win? Any of them could be basically deserving, but I quite like Would I Lie To You, so let’s go with that.

Who will win? I’d expect it to be between Joe Lycett or Martin Lewis – Lycett is perhaps fractionally more likely to win, but it could go either way. (Now that I’ve committed to this, Big Zuu will win. Well, good for him.)

Who will win? The Real Mo Farah.

Who should win? Hard not to say The Real Mo Farah. 

Who will win? I Am Ruth, unquestionably. 

Who should win? I Am Ruth really was that good – seek it out if you’ve not seen it – though it’d be remiss of me not to point out that Then Barbara Met Alan really should’ve been nominated in this category. 

Who will win? In any other year, any of these feel like they’d be the clear frontrunner – in 2022 the winner was The Earthshot Prize, and the year before it was Springwatch – but against each other they make for a surprisingly heavyweight category. It’ll obviously be the funeral – it’s won two BAFTAs already! – but an upset feels vaguely more possible than it would’ve against a Springwatch. 

Who should win? If you’re judging it solely in terms of being a technically complex production with very high stakes, then, in fairness, the award probably should go to the team behind the funeral. 

Who will win? This one goes to a public vote, so it’ll probably be Paddington and the Queen (although don’t rule out the possibility of highly motivated and well organised twitter stans swinging it for Stranger Things or Heartstopper). 

Who should win? Per the 1872 secret ballot act, I won’t be sharing my vote with you (or the fact that I forgot to vote). 

Who are the rest of the nominees?

The 2023 TV BAFTAs are on BBC One on Sunday 14 May at 7pm.