UK Covid cases: the areas of England where infections are still rising - as Sage warns of third wave

Covid cases are rising in more than half of England’s towns and cities, despite a sharp drop in infection rates across the UK as a whole.

Latest figures show that of the 6,790 neighbourhood areas in England, 1,325 areas (one in five) have seen a week-on-week rise in new cases.

Where have cases increased the most?

The area of Selby Town in Selby, North Yorkshire, saw the biggest increase in cases in the latest weekly period, rising by 1,376 per cent from 29.7 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to 15 April to 438.5 cases in the seven days to 22 April.

Brampton and West Melton in Rotherham, South Yorkshire, had the next highest increase in cases over the same period, rising by 334 per cent from 25.9 cases per 100,000 people, to 112.3.

Other areas which saw large increases in seven days from 15 April to 22 April include:

- Crumpsall South, Manchester - rising by 300 per cent, from 49.3 to 197.2

- Selby West, Selby - rising by 275 per cent, from 60.5 to 227

- Lockwood, Kirklees - rising by 275 per cent, from 47.9 to 179.6

- Holme Hill, North East Lincolnshire - rising by 266 per cent, from 50.1 to 183.5

Warnings of a third wave

The rise in cases comes after the Prime Minister warned the UK would “probably” experience a third wave of coronavirus infections.

He said: “The numbers of deaths, the number of hospitalisations, are currently very low.

"That doesn't mean that we have got it totally licked, it doesn't mean that Covid is over.

"We have got to be realistic about that, unfortunately there probably will be another wave of the disease, but I think that the vaccination programme has now been so massive - 33.6 million people vaccinated.

"We have built up what I think are some pretty robust fortifications against the next wave, we will have to see how strong they really are in due course."

Boris Johnson has told the public to expect a third wave of coronavirus, with scientists saying it will hit the unvaccinated and those for whom vaccines do not work perfectly.

Modelling for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) says the third wave may be as high as previous waves, with up to 40,000 further deaths, although chief government scientists have since said that is unlikely.

Sage advisers have warned that it is “highly likely” there will be a resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later stages of the lockdown roadmap are lifted.

It is thought that a rise in cases will occur as some people, predominantly children, are not eligible for vaccination, while some choose not to have the vaccine at all.

Additionally, vaccines are not 100 per cent effective and so a proportion of vaccinated people, especially those in older age groups and who are vulnerable, could still end up in hospital.

However, Sage advisers believe a further wave of cases will now come closer to the autumn, when measures may need to be tightened again following a loosening in the summer.

The areas where cases are rising

Listed are the areas of England where Covid cases have increased in the seven days from 15 April to 22 April.

This data is a ranking of the Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MSOAs) - small geographic areas containing an average of 7,200 people - with the biggest weekly increase in cases.

At a neighbourhood level, 1,325 out of 6,790 areas (one in five) have seen a rise in biggest, with Selby recording the biggest percentage change in the seven day period.

A total of 367 areas have seen case rates more than double, although it was only possible to work out an exact percentage for 99 areas, where cases increased by more than 100 per cent.Of these, 59 had cases increase from three to six, and 24 had cases increase from four to eight.

The remaining 268 areas had recorded between 0 and two cases the week before - meaning the figure is suppressed and given as a blank - but had five or more cases this week.

A total of 944 areas that previously had fewer than three cases now have three or more.

These are the neighbourhoods which had the biggest increases out of the areas where the percentage change was known. Areas are listed in the following format: neighbourhood, local authority, infection rate per 100,000 people on 15 April, infection rate per 100,000 people on 22 April, percentage increase in the seven day period.

Selby Town, Selby, 29.7, 438.5, 1,376

Brampton & West, Melton, Rotherham, 25.9, 112.3, 334

Crumpsall South, Manchester, 49.3, 197.2, 300

Selby West, Selby, 60.5, 227, 275

Lockwood, Kirklees, 47.9, 179.6, 275

Holme Hill, North East Lincolnshire, 50.1, 183.5, 266

Coleridge, Cambridge, 56.1, 190.6, 240

Southall Park, Ealing, 53.1, 180.4, 240

Bristol City Centre, Bristol, 15.8, 52.8, 234

Hillmorton, Rugby, 29.9, 99.6, 233

Park Barn & Royal Surrey, Guildford, 28.8, 95.9, 233

High Green & Burncross, Sheffield, 29.5, 98.2, 233

Popley, Basingstoke and Deane, 21.6, 71.9, 233

St Matthew's, Preston, 46, 149.5, 225

Blackwall & Leamouth, Tower Hamlets, 24.5, 73.6, 200

North Gosforth, Newcastle upon Tyne, 29.6, 88.9, 200

Ickleford, Great Offley & Whitwell, North Hertfordshire, 30.4, 91.3, 200

Darton & Kexborough, Barnsley, 38.8, 116.5, 200

Abington, Northampton, 39.5, 118.6, 200

Dewsbury Moor Upper, Kirklees, 45.6, 136.8, 200

Summerfield, Birmingham, 28.1, 84.3, 200

Retford North, Bassetlaw, 62.8, 188.4, 200

Dewsbury Central & Westborough, Kirklees, 67, 201, 200

Town, South Lynn & West Lynn, King's Lynn and West Norfolk, 35.7, 107, 200

Langley & Wood Side, Rochdale, 34.7, 95.5, 175

Thurnscoe, Barnsley, 44, 121, 175

Wilton Park, Carlinghow & Brookroyd, Kirklees, 53, 145.7, 175

Limehouse North & Stepney East, Tower Hamlets, 28, 74.8, 167

Berryfields & Haydon Hill, Aylesbury Vale, 23.7, 63.3, 167

Petersfield, Cambridge, 35.5, 94.8, 167

Brightside & Wincobank, Sheffield, 60.6, 161.7, 167

Lodge Farm, Northampton, 44.8, 119.5, 167

Wembley East, Brent, 28.5, 76, 167

Bevois Town, Southampton, 39.9, 106.4, 167

Biddulph Central, Staffordshire Moorlands, 35.4, 94.4, 167

Oswaldtwistle, Hyndburn, 41.1, 109.6, 167

Warwick South East, Myton & Heathcote, Warwick, 25.8, 68.8, 167

Wexham Lea, Slough, 53, 141.2, 166

Marylebone & Park Lane, Westminster, 26.5, 70.5, 166

Middlesbrough Central, Middlesbrough, 30.2, 75.5, 150

Cudworth Village, Barnsley, 81.7, 196, 140

Cobridge & Central Forest, Stoke-on-Trent, 71.3, 171, 140

Headington, Oxford, 20, 46.8, 134

Tilbury, Thurrock, 20.3, 47.5, 134

Attleborough, Nuneaton and Bedworth, 39.5, 92.3, 134

Pocklington, East Riding of Yorkshire, 24.7, 57.7, 134

Cippenham Green, Slough, 61.1, 142.6, 133

Springfield & Great Lever, Bolton, 33.3, 77.7, 133

Salford Central & University, Salford, 19.8, 46.2, 133

Ingleby Barwick West, Stockton-on-Tees, 18.3, 42.7, 133

Intake, Doncaster, 62.9, 146.7, 133

Meir South & Lightwood, Stoke-on-Trent, 35.6, 83, 133

Leeds Dock, Hunslet & Stourton, Leeds, 35.7, 83.2, 133

Creekmouth & Barking Riverside, Barking and Dagenham, 22.5, 52.4, 133

South Park, Redbridge, 26.4, 59.4, 125

City Centre North & Collyhurst, Manchester, 54.4, 122.4, 125

Edlington, Doncaster, 66.8, 147, 120

Wakefield St John's, Wakefield, 86.9, 186.2, 114

Lewisham Central & Park, Lewisham, 20.4, 40.9, 100

Hounslow High Street, Hounslow, 21.7, 43.5, 100

Queensbury South, Brent, 27.1, 54.3, 100

Camden Street & Elm Village, Camden, 27.7, 55.5, 100

Smethwick East, Sandwell, 27.9, 55.9, 100

Adlington & Rivington, Chorley, 29, 58.1, 100

Oldham Town South, Oldham, 33.6, 67.3, 100

St Mary's & Cotton Row, Wandsworth, 35.2, 70.5, 100

North Evington & Rowlatts Hill, Leicester, 36.8, 73.7, 100

Mapplewell & Staincross, Barnsley, 36.9, 73.9, 100

North Lindley & Birchencliffe, Kirklees, 37.2, 74.5, 100

Broxtowe & Cinderhill, Nottingham, 41.1, 82.3, 100

Snatchill, Corby, 41.2, 82.5, 100

Upper Easton, Bristol, 41.4, 82.9, 100

Pinner Green, Harrow, 42.3, 84.7, 100

Bramley Fall, Leeds, 47.8, 95.7, 100

Huddersfield Leeds Road & Fartown, Kirklees, 52.8, 105.7, 100

A message from the editor:

Thank you for reading. NationalWorld is a new national news brand, produced by a team of journalists, editors, video producers and designers who live and work across the UK. Find out more about who’s who in the team, and our editorial values. We want to start a community among our readers, so please follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, and keep the conversation going.