Covid reinfections: people in North of England twice as likely to have had coronavirus more than once

People in the North of England are around twice as likely to have had Covid more than once compared to those in the South West, analysis by NationalWorld suggests, after data on reinfections was released for the first time.

Figures published by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to the UK Covid dashboard this week reveals that there have been almost 600,000 reinfections recorded in England since the start of the pandemic.

NationalWorld’s analysis has found that there have been twice as many reinfections in the North East and North West, relative to the size of the population, than in the South West, with a clear North-South divide emerging.

Some council areas have also seen six times more reinfections than others - NationalWorld has revealed the areas with the highest reinfection rates here.

Almost nine in 10 of the Covid reinfections have occurred in the last two months alone, since Omicron arrived in the UK.

One professor of molecular medicine says the regional disparity may reflect socio-economic factors, with crowded housing and deprivation known to affect the spread of the virus.

Think tank IPPR North also said the data exposes regional health inequalities, linked to employment and housing inequalities, with the disproportionate impact of Covid on the North reflecting the cuts it endured to public health and other council spending under austerity.

Until this week, Covid case figures for England had only included first infections, with all new cases from people who had previously had the virus excluded.

UKHSA is now counting each time a person gets infected as a new case, as long as the infections are at least 90 days apart.

The new data is a count of reinfections - not people reinfected.

For example, if a person has had Covid three times, with each case being 90 or more days apart, they will be counted twice in the data as they have been reinfected twice.

In total, England recorded 588,114 Covid reinfections between June 2020 and 30 January 2022, with 85.9% of these being in the 61 days after 1 December 2020.

The North East had the highest rate of reinfections, with 1,414.5 per 100,000 people as of 30 January 2022.

The North West and Yorkshire and the Humber also had high rates of Covid reinfections, with 1,399.6 and 1,203.9 per 100,000 respectively.

This compares to 680.9 cases per 100,000 in the South West, which had the lowest rate.

That means the rate of reinfection is twice as high in the North compared to the South West, although if there are lots of third or fourth infections it may not mean twice as many individual people have been reinfected.

‘Covid-19 has only served to widen and worsen existing inequalities’

Martin Michaelis, professor of molecular medicine at the University of Kent, said the higher rate of reinfections in the North is unsurprising given it has seen more initial infections, too.

“If there are more people in an area that already had Covid-19 in the past, there is automatically also a higher number of people that can and will be reinfected,” he said.

But NationalWorld’s analysis shows the gap between north and south when it comes to reinfections is wider than for initial infections.

There were 2.1 times more reinfections in the North East and West compared to the South West, relative to the population, but only 1.3 times as many initial infections – meaning the higher rate of initial infections cannot explain the disparity alone.

Socio-economic factors may also explain some of the variation, Professor Michaelis added, with the spread of Covid “exposing the inequalities in our society”.

He said: “People who live in more crowded environments and cannot work from home are at a much higher risk of getting infected.

“This is why wealthier areas are often hit later and less severe by Covid-19 outbreaks than more deprived ones and why the Covid-19 spread emphasises social differences.”

Erica Roscoe, senior research fellow at think tank IPPR North, echoed the comments, saying: “Throughout the pandemic, infection rates and deaths have fallen disproportionately on people in the north of England, so it is unsurprising that we are seeing higher re-infection numbers in these areas too.”

She said this is because the places where we live, work, grow up and grow old play a “fundamental role” in shaping our health, with places in the north having experienced “years of disproportionate cuts to vital areas like local government and public health budgets”.

“Covid-19 has only served to widen and worsen existing inequalities,” Ms Roscoe added.

Where has seen the most reinfections?

Looking at specific council areas, Burnley has the highest rate of Covid reinfections, with 1,972.2 per 100,000 people as of 30 January 2022.

Following closely behind this was Knowsley, with a Covid reinfection rate of 1,906.8 per 100,000 people.

In comparison, North Norfolk was found to have a Covid reinfection rate almost six times less than that of Burnley, with 348 reinfections per 100,000 people.

West Devon also had a significantly lower rate of reinfections, with 390.1 per 100,000 people.

You can find out the 15 councils with the most reinfections recorded here.

The reinfection rate in each English region was:

• East Midlands - 1,047.3
• East of England - 872.2
• London - 1,064.4
• North East - 1,414.5
• North West - 1,399.6
• South East - 795.7
• South West - 680.9
• West Midlands - 1,092.4
• Yorkshire and The Humber - 1,203.9

Looking at specific council areas, Burnley was found to have the highest rate of Covid reinfections, with 1,972.2 per 100,000 people as of 30 January 2022.

Following closely behind this was Knowsley, with a Covid reinfection rate of 1,906.8 per 100,000 people.

In comparison, North Norfolk was found to have a Covid reinfection rate almost six times less than that of Burnley, with 348 reinfections per 100,000 people.

West Devon also had a significantly lower rate of reinfections, with 390.1 per 100,000 people.

‘Covid-19 has only served to widen and worsen existing inequalities’

Addressing why the north of the country may have a higher level of Covid reinfections than it southern counterparts, Martin Michaelis, Professor of Molecular Medicine at the University of Kent, said: “The most obvious explanation would be that you see the highest reinfection rates in areas that already had the highest infection rates in the past.”

He added: “If there are more people in an area that already had Covid-19 in the past, there is automatically also a higher number of people that can and will be reinfected.”

Infections are 2.1 times as common in the North compared to the South West, whereas first infections are only 1.3 times as common, which shows a higher likelihood of being reinfected with coronavirus.

In regards to the Omicron variant, Prof Michaelis said it is an “effective escape variant”, which means it is good at infecting people who already had Covid-19, as well as vaccinated individuals”.

Professor Michaelis also added that there are many socio-economic factors that affect the spread of Covid-19.

He said: “People who live in more crowded environments and cannot work from home are at a much higher risk of getting infected.

“This is why wealthier areas are often hit later and less severe by Covid-19 outbreaks than more deprived ones and why the Covid-19 spread emphasises social differences.”

Prof Michaelis added that since the introduction of Covid vaccines, higher vaccination rates in more affluent parts of the population further contribute to these differences, therefore Covid-19 “exposes the inequalities in our society”.

This is echoed by Erica Roscoe, senior research fellow at think tank IPPR North, who said: “Throughout the pandemic, infection rates and deaths have fallen disproportionately on people in the north of England, so it is unsurprising that we are seeing higher re-infection numbers in these areas too.”

She said this is because the places where we live, work, grow up and grow old play a “fundamental role” in shaping our health, with places in the north having experienced “years of disproportionate cuts to vital areas like local government and public health budgets”.

“Covid-19 has only served to widen and worsen existing inequalities,” Ms Roscoe added.