NHS waiting lists might not get any better until December 2027, new IFS report suggests

NHS waiting lists will not recover to pre-pandemic levels over the next four years, according to analysis.

Despite recent reductions in the waiting list in England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that it is "unlikely that waiting lists will reach pre-pandemic levels" by December 2027 - even under a "best-case scenario". The latest figures show that the waiting list for routine hospital treatment in England has fallen for the third month in a row.

An estimated 7.6m treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of December, relating to 6.37m patients, down slightly from 7.61m treatments and 6.39m patients at the end of November, according to NHS England figures. Cutting NHS waiting lists is one of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s top priorities.

IFS research economist Max Warner, and author of the report, said: "The next government may well inherit a falling elective NHS waiting list in England. But even with a trend pointing in the right direction, waiting lists will still be far higher than they have been - and long waiting times are unlikely to go away any time soon."

Mark Franks, from the Nuffield Foundation, which part-funded the report, added: "We have witnessed over a decade of increasing NHS waiting lists, influenced by factors such as a growing and ageing population. More recently, the pandemic has exacerbated this issue by hindering the NHS’s capacity to provide healthcare services.

"If our public health services are to recover, the next government needs a credible and sustainable plan for tackling the NHS’s capacity, funding and productivity issues."

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: "We recognise the challenges the NHS faces, and we are taking the long-term decisions needed to make our health service faster, simpler and fairer, cutting waiting lists and ensuring people get the care they need.

"Overall NHS waiting lists have decreased for three months in a row, despite winter pressures and industrial action, and we’ve delivered our commitment to provide an extra 50m GP appointments months ahead of schedule, while the recent rollout of Pharmacy First will help to free up 10m GP appointments per year."