UK death rate hits lowest level for six years for January and February

Deaths across the UK in January and February fell to their lowest level in six years, official figures show.

The number of people dying in the UK fell below pre-pandemic levels during the first two months of 2022, with 5,500 fewer deaths than expected for the period.

Officials have said it could be because many older and vulnerable people died sooner than expected during the coronavirus pandemic.

Analysis of mortality data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) shows 112,298 deaths were recorded in the UK during January and February.

That was 5,505 fewer deaths than the 2015 to 2019 average of 117,803 – 9% lower. Deaths above the 2015 to 2019 five-year average are referred to as excess deaths.

This year’s total was the lowest since 2016, when 106,000 were recorded.

But the ONS said the drop could actually be due to excess deaths having occurred at other times in the pandemic, if people who might otherwise have been expected to die now are already deceased.

At a national level, England recorded 4,291 fewer deaths than usual (down 4%) while Scotland recorded 634 fewer (down 6%), Wales 473 fewer (down 7%) and Northern Ireland 106 fewer (down 3%).

Regionally, the East saw the greatest drop in deaths for the January to February period with 859 fewer deaths than on average (down 8%), followed by the South East with 1,016 (down 6%) and the South West with 571 and North East with 297 (both down 5%).

Not everywhere has seen a drop in death rates – 100 local authorities across the UK recorded excess deaths for the period.

Birmingham recorded 82 more deaths than usually expected, followed by Leicestershire with 54 and Warwickshire with 51. As a proportion of expected deaths, excess deaths were highest in Derry City and Strabane, with 51 more deaths than usual, an increase of 23%.

Why have deaths fallen?

The ONS said the drop in death figures could be linked to older people dying sooner than expected.

A spokesperson said: “While many factors can influence the number of deaths in a given period, a possible explanation for deaths being below average in early 2022 could be ‘mortality displacement’. This occurs when vulnerable people, such as older people and those with underlying health conditions, die sooner than expected.

“This can, in turn, lead to a period when the number of deaths is below that which might be expected. We have seen some evidence of this in older age groups earlier in the pandemic, and we’re continuing to monitor this.”

What are people dying from in the UK?

More than 10,000 people died with coronavirus in the first two months of 2022.

Coronavirus was recorded on death certificates 10,472 times during January and February, making up 9% of all deaths.

This refers to all cases where Covid contributed to a death, although it may not always have been the main underlying cause if the person had more than one condition.

Nationally, Northern Ireland had the highest proportion of deaths that were due to Covid with 296 in total, making up 10% of all deaths. In England 9% of deaths were linked to coronavirus with 8,795 recorded in total. In Scotland and Wales 8% of deaths involved coronavirus, making up 844 and 507 deaths respectively.

The virus is not the leading cause of deaths in England and Wales.

The latest analysis by the ONS shows the leading cause of death in England in February 2022 was dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, which accounted for 12% of all deaths, while in Wales, the leading cause was ischaemic heart diseases, making up 11% of all deaths.