What will happen to TikTok? Sale deadline draws near with no buyer announced - will Amazon take it over? Will it be banned?

In another sign of the security fears surrounding the Bytedance-owned videosharing app, Ireland’s data protection commissioner is expected to levy a €500m (£422m) penalty within days, in the culmination of a four-year investigation

It’s the second fine dished out to TikTok in less than two years by Ireland, after a €345m fine was imposed in September 2023 which came after an investigation into TikTok’s “processing of personal data relating to child users”.

This time the Irish DPC has been looking at allegations that TikTok staff in Beijing could access users’ personal data.The company has said that user data can sometimes be accessed from China but denied that information is routinely sent to the country.

This is at the heart of the west’s security fears over TikTok, because Chinese law stipulates that companies must give up information when asked to.This is why TikTok has been banned from government devices in countries across the world - and there are fears that Beijing could use the data on operations on propaganda campaigns in other countries.

Meanwhile, in America, US President Donald Trump has said a deal to find a buyer for the US operations of TikTok is “very close” - and it will be banned if not sold by tomorrow.

A law passed in the US last year demanded the sale of the app by TikTok’s parent firm, ByteDance. The platform went offline for a day in January when an initial deadline for the sale passed, until Mr Trump stepped in and delayed the ban until April 5.

Speaking aboard Air Force One on Thursday, Mr Trump said “multiple investors” were close to securing a deal, with reports of a number of potential buyers being in the frame.

The US President has previously suggested that he would be willing to offer China some relief from US tariffs if it agrees to a sale.

It was reported earlier this week that Amazon had submitted a last-minute offer to acquire TikTok, while Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and Trump ally Elon Musk have previously been linked with the app.

Other potential bidders include billionaire Frank McCourt, Tim Stokely, the British founder of subscription site OnlyFans, and the world’s most popular YouTuber MrBeast – real name Jimmy Donaldson – who claimed earlier this year to be working with investors to put together a bid.

The exact structure of any deal for TikTok’s US business remains unclear, with previous reports suggesting that the most likely buyer was one from the social media firm’s current array of non-Chinese investors, who would increase their stake in the company.

It has also been reported that the White House has considered an option whereby ByteDance keeps ownership of the TikTok algorithm, but then leases it to the new entity operating the social media platform in the US.

What also remains unclear is what would happen if any sale does not happen before the April 5 deadline. Mr Trump has previously said he would “probably” offer another extension if needed.

Kelsey Chickering, principal analyst at Forrester, said it was “highly unlikely” that TikTok would “go dark” again, as it did briefly in January, and that “all signs point to a deal or another extension”.

She added that the fate of TikTok’s algorithm would be a key part of any deal, as it would shape the app’s usefulness going forward, and the wider social media landscape as a result.

“If TikTok divests in the US, the real question is whether its algorithm comes with the sale,” she said. “TikTok without its algorithm is like Harry Potter without his wand – it’s simply not as powerful.

TikTok operates on a content graph, not a social graph, which means it analyses thousands of user signals to determine what content and creators the user will want to watch, making it hyper relevant and highly addictive. In fact, our data shows 31% of US online adults consider TikTok to be addictive, more than any other social media platform,” Ms Chickering added.

“Last April, we asked TikTok users about a TikTok sale, and 54% said they’re concerned if TikTok is sold and run by a different company that it won’t be as good of an experience as it is now. If the TikTok experience degrades, users, creators, and advertisers will spend more time and money on other media channels.”