General election poll: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could lose seat in Labour landslide as leaders give Easter message

The Conservatives could be left with fewer than 100 MPs after the next general election, according to a new poll of 15,000 voters - and Rishi Sunak himself at risk of losing his safe seat.

Data from the survey, carried out by Survation for the Best for Britain campaign group, was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales, and hold just 98 seats in England.

Meanwhile, Labour stood on 45% - a 19-point lead over the Tories on 26% - and were on course for a landslide, winning 468 seats, installing Sir Kier Starmer in Number 10 Downing Street.

The Conservatives could be left in disarray after the poll, the results suggest, with several leadership hopefuls among those predicted to be out, including Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who the numbers suggest could all lose their seats.

However, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister, Robert Jenrick.

Mr Sunak could face a close race in his new Richmond and Northallerton seat which, based on the 2019 results should be solidly Conservative, he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

The study used a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results, a highly-respected polling system.

By comparison, in 2019, the Conservatives had 365 seats, Labour 203, the SNP 48, the Lib Dems 11 and Plaid, four.

The analysis also looks set to further increase fuel Conservative unease about the threat from Reform UK, as the survey suggested Richard Tice’s party will come second in seven seats and achieve an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%.

And in a sign of Reform UK’s ambitions, Tory MP Bob Seely revealed he had been approached to defect to the Nigel Farage-linked party.

Writing in the Sun on Sunday, he said: “I said no to Reform because I believe in loyalty. I believed in loyalty when I served in the British Army and I believe it when I serve my constituents on the Isle of Wight, and I believe in it when I am supporting Rishi Sunak. I don’t cut and run, and neither should we.”

A Reform spokesman told the newspaper: “If he wants to turn down the only chance he has of saving his skin, well, that’s up to him.”

Best for Britain chief executive, Naomi Smith, said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”

Rishi Sunak and Sir Kier Starmer Easter messages

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation was conducted between March 8 and 22. It comes as Rishi Sunak and Sir Kier Starmer released Easter messages to the British public, with the PM calling it a time to “pause and reflect”, while the Labour leader said it was a time of “optimism and new beginnings”.

The messages come just weeks before a set of local polls on May 2, which could give an early indication of Tory and Labour prospects at the general election. Sir Keir, who hopes to be in No 10 by the end of the year, used his message to say people would use Easter to think about “our future and how things can change for the better”.

“The Easter story is one of hope and renewal, of overcoming adversity and light prevailing over darkness,” he said. “As families and friends gather to celebrate the holiday we turn our thoughts towards new beginnings, our future and how things can change for the better.

“Faith is really important. It’s a place where people can invest a lot of themselves and find comfort, hope and a sense of security. This Easter I’d like to express my gratitude to the Christian community in the UK and beyond, for their generosity and compassion.

“At this time of optimism and new beginnings, I thank them for everything they do, and wish all those celebrating a very happy Easter.”

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister praised the work of Christians in communities across the UK and said people would also be “thinking of those in pain and suffering around the world”.

He said: “This weekend, as people come together to celebrate and reflect on the message at the heart of the Easter festival, I want to pay tribute to the incredible work of Christians in this country. To the churches, charities, volunteers and fundraisers who live the Christian values of compassion, charity and self-sacrifice, supporting those in need and demonstrating what it means to ‘love thy neighbour’.

“Many, I know, will also be thinking of those in pain and suffering around the world, and Christians persecuted because of their faith who are unable to celebrate Easter freely.

“For many of us in the UK, Easter is a chance to pause and reflect and an opportunity to spend some precious time with our families and a moment to enjoy the start of spring. So this weekend, let me wish you all a very happy and peaceful Easter.”