General election 2024 dispatch: the Green Party looks to take on Tories in true blue Hampshire

The middle of Hampshire is, by and large, a comfortable area. It’s within easy commuting distance of three cities - Portsmouth, Southampton and Winchester - and it’s the latter which has a newly created and large parliamentary constituency covering the bulk of the centre of the county.

Winchester itself is, overall, famously well-heeled; a smart city centre, a beautiful cathedral, a train station an hour from Waterloo and picturesque nearby countryside have seen house prices explode over the last 20 years. 

At first glance the area would seem to be solidly and stolidly Conservative. The “old” Winchester seat was held by Tory Steve Brine, and under the new boundaries it will encompass much of the old Meon Valley seat, which has now been abolished and was held by Flick Drummond since 2019 and George Holingbery before that, since its creation in 2010. The last three elections saw Meon Valley give Tory majorities of about 25,000. 

But that doesn’t tell the story; on the one hand, Winchester City Council (which now, again, overlaps with the “new” parliamentary seat) is under Lib Dem control, with the Tories battered down to a rump of eight seats after the last local election. And this area is also seeing its own version of a story being replicated in many places across the UK - the rise of the Greens.

The Central Meon Valley seat of Winchester council now has three Green councillors, and the area also returned a county councillor - Hampshire’s only Green - this year. And this goes with, elsewhere in the county four Greens winning seats on the traditionally all-blue Havant Borough Council, and two on Basingstoke’s council. It seems to be a quiet march.

Malcolm Wallace represents the Greens on Winchester City and the county council, and is campaigning this year for Lorraine Estelle for the parliamentary seat. 

He has seen the rise in influence first-hand, and said: “Just over two years ago there were no elected Greens in Hampshire. But people are not enamoured with the Conservatives right now. A lot of it is to do with hope and opportunity. It’s exciting what the Greens can bring. We are offering people a different voice. Protecting the local environment is really important to people. Improving facilities - that resonates with people.”

Cllr Wallace says he only got involved with politics about four years ago, because he was “frustrated with politicians”. An engineer and project manager by trade, he is interested in taking action - not direct action, as while he says he sympathises with Just Stop Oil and their like he can’t condone law-breaking - but a politics that sees changes made for the benefit of people. His two Green colleagues on Winchester City Council are an ex-teacher and a doctor; both, he says, grounded in the real world.

He said: “We try to tell people the truth, whether it’s about climate change or sewage in rivers, or schools or the NHS. We try not to spin it. We are trying to tell people what’s going on. 

“I try to take action that’s needed. Not all problems can be solved straightaway. With sewage, it would be great to say that could be cleared but it’s built up over many years. We [as a country] have not invested in the water network and we can’t fix that problem [overnight].”

And Cllr Wallace says the impact of Green representatives can be huge. He said: “There’s an immediate and enormous difference having a Green in the room. Both on Winchester and HCC it’s made an enormous difference. People start thinking differently about issues that come before committees.”

But while the groundswell of Green support may well grow - amid continuing anger about the water companies’ polluting practices and generalised concern over climate change - there is a big stumbling block. Even a hugely increased vote share for the Greens may not translate into parliamentary representation. 

Last year its leadership announced it was targeting four seats - Brighton Pavilion; the new seat of Bristol Central; the new seat of Waveney Valley which includes parts of Norfolk and Suffolk; and North Herefordshire.

Cllr Wallace, 49, said: “There’s a lot more interest in the Greens, but [the system] does make it challenging for the Greens and other smaller parties. The first-past-the post system favours the incumbent and the party coming second. It needs an inordinate amount of effort.

“A third to 40 per cent of people will not vote for the party they want to as they are voting tactically - and people don’t feel represented. We are trying hard to win those four seats - that would be an enormous achievement. But we should be fighting for 100. Greens can win anywhere.”

And that is where the problem lies with the country. On paper the Winchester constituency is a two-horse race between Lib Dem and Tory. While voters in the area have shown their faith in Greens, making them win the last three local elections where I live, they may suffer precisely because the Tories have become the bete noire for many. The generalised support for policy which places the environment and accountability first is there; but will people risk splitting a vote and letting a Conservative take the seat again? While FPTP exists, Green ambitions at Westminster will remain hobbled.