National Risk Register: what is the likelihood of another pandemic and the assassination of a public figure?

A future pandemic, Russia’s potential to disrupt global energy supplies and extreme weather related to climate change are among 89 threats the government has identified to the UK's security.

The Cabinet Office has updated the national risk register to help Britain prepare for “worst-case scenarios” that could hit the country.

The severity of each risk has been assessed by taking factors such as the potential number of lives lost and financial cost, into account while the likelihood of each risk has been determined using extensive data modelling and expert analysis.

The register measures the likelihood of an event happening, with above 25% the highest score - but says this is because "all risks" considered "are relatively low likelihood events".

The chance of a pandemic is now between 5% and 25% and would be “catastrophic”. Impact assessments for weather events such as heatwaves and storms range from “significant” to “moderate” with a likelihood of between 1% and 25%.

Climate change has already altered the risk of certain types of extreme weather in the UK, with evidence suggesting that the frequency and intensity of storms is likely to increase in the future, the register says.

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the potential threat of disruption to global energy supplies has also been included on the 2023 list - but is relatively low at between 0.2% and 1%.

Other threats include the malicious use of drones to disrupt transport and other key bits of infrastructure, and potential disruption to undersea transatlantic telecommunications cables that are used for internet and communications.

The 2023 register is the most transparent since its original publication in 2008 and shares some previously classified information.

The register takes into account recent high-profile events in considering risks.

For example, it cites the murder of Conservative MP Sir David Amess in its assessment of the assassination of a public figure, for which it says there is a likelihood of more than 25%.

Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden will visit energy supplier SSE’s Able Seaton Port facility in Hartlepool on Thursday to launch the new list.

It comes as the first 260m-high wind turbines are installed at Dogger Bank Wind Farm, which the renewables company is overseeing.

Mr Dowden said: “This is the most comprehensive risk assessment we’ve ever published, so that government and our partners can put robust plans in place and be ready for anything.

“One of those rising risks is energy security. We’ve installed the first turbine at the future world’s largest offshore wind farm, which will provide secure, low-cost and clean energy for the British people – enabling us to stand up to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s energy ransom.”