Met Office weather forecast: Is a snow storm on the way for a White Christmas? Bookies' odds and predictions

But what’s the actual likelihood of snow this Christmas? Here’s what we are likely to be looking at.

Will there be widespread snow this year?

A picturesque Christmas where widespread snow covers the ground is extremely rare, and since 1960 has only happened four times – in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

Simon Partridge, a meteorologist for the Met Office, said predicting weather far in advance is like “betting on horses”.

He said: “There will be a consensus of the most likely pattern to be coming out but it doesn’t always.”

At the moment, a picture book Christmas is looking unlikely with “south-westerly winds” expected and rain across the northern and western parts of the UK. Everywhere else is expected to be “fairly mild”. However, if you’re desperate for snow, Mr Partridge suggests heading to the Scottish mountains – the most likely place for snowfall in the UK this Christmas.

When will we know for sure that it’s going to snow?

Forecasting “impactful” snow is notoriously difficult in the UK because several competing elements have to be exact for snow to fall. Just a fraction of a degree means the difference between a Christmas day of joyful snowball fights and one spent dodging slushy streets.

Mr Partridge said: “The trouble with trying to forecast snow in the UK is that it’s a very fine line between whether we get snow or rain.”

The Met Office will only truly know if there will be big flurries on Christmas day a week in advance because their five-day forecasts are the most detailed and accurate.

Is snow more likely over the Christmas period?

Christmas marks the beginning of when it is likely to snow in the UK but it is more probable for there to be snow in January and February than in December. Snow settles on the ground for an average of three days in December compared to 3.3 in January and 3.4 in February. Climate change has also minimised the chances of snow due to higher average temperatures across the land and sea globally.

What is the official definition of a white Christmas?

For the Met Office to declare a white Christmas a single snowflake has to be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25 anywhere in the UK. This is a common occurrence; since 1960 more than half of all Christmas Days have been declared a white Christmas.

2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK, with 11% of weather stations recorded snow falling, although none reported any snow lying on the ground.

What’s the actual forecast at the moment?

We’re still in the category of long-range forecasts for December 25, so everything is, as ever, subject to change. Here’s what various forecasters say.

Met Office - Friday, December 20 to Sunday, December 29

“After a mainly dry start on Friday, a band of showery rain is likely to move southeastwards across the UK. Beyond this, it will remain changeable through the rest of the period. The wettest and windiest conditions will probably be in the north, with spells of heavy rain at times as low pressure systems pass by. Further south, whilst some unsettled weather is likely at times, it will probably be drier overall with a greater influence of high pressure. Temperatures will likely vary around average, with both some milder and colder interludes at times. Snow will most likely be restricted to high ground, although could temporarily fall at lower levels in the north during any colder interludes. “

BBC - Monday, December 23 to Sunday, December 29

“There are indications that the unsettled conditions are likely to continue, accompanied at times by fairly windy conditions. Temperatures could be around or slightly above seasonal averages, with a colder risk in Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland in particular. Therefore, some wintriness (even if only temporary) is possible especially further north but even here will most likely be across higher ground. There could be some disruptive weather in places associated with an expected strong west and occasional north-westerly flow.”

WX Charts

Using information from WX Charts, the Daily Express has excitably talked about a “snow bomb” hitting - or as they say “blasting” the UK before Christmas. A closer look at the source material shows this is true - but only to a certain extent.

Snow is forecast for Scotland for several days in the run-up to Christmas - being most widespread on Sunday, December 22 - but is not, at this stage, looking like it will get further south. WX Charts’ prediction for Christmas Day itself is a generally dry day.

These are the odds issued by Ladbrokes last week

• Edinburgh – 2/1
• Newcastle – 5/2
• Belfast – 3/1
• Manchester – 5/1
• Liverpool – 6/1
• Birmingham – 8/1
• Cardiff – 8/1
• Dublin – 8/1
• London – 8/1