Local elections: social media rumours aren't enough to save Tories from electoral wipe out

Then, when the turnout figures came in, some commentators rushed to condemn the Labour mayor, while Tories briefed that Hall could oust Khan. Despite this, I still gave the Conservative candidate a 1% chance of overturning the huge deficit - and thankfully for my reputation this proved correct.

As soon as the results started coming in on Saturday, it was clear that Khan was going to retain the mayoralty. Boris Johnson’s ultra-low emission zone, which Khan had put into practice, had been touted by the Tories as an “anti-car” policy which would bring him down. 

This, however, appears to have had little impact on the race, with outer London boroughs, which have been more affected by the ULEZ, still swinging towards Labour. And in a way, this is little more than the Tories deserve. 

Senior Conservative politicians have spent years criticising the capital, deriding it as a city of latte-drinking liberals which is simultaneously afflicted by crime and immigrants. Hall embarked on a campaign in which the only tactic was to attack Khan. 

She had previously liked tweets praising Donald Trump and referring to the capital as “Londonistan”, and was caught out by LBC’s Nick Ferrari embellishing losing her wallet to make a political point about theft on the Tube.

As former Tory minister for London, Paul Scully, pointed out this was in contrast to victorious Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley, who continually professed his love for his area. I’m not saying all a candidate has to do, but the Conservatives’ attacks on our capital to try and provoke a wedge with Labour have been odd.

In his victory, Khan hit out at the “non-stop negativity” of his opponent, accusing her of “right-wing populism”. While the mayor was speaking, Hall’s outriders heckled him with “crime, crime”.

There should be an inquest in Conservative HQ as to why the party didn’t mount a more competitive campaign. After all, no London mayor has won a third term before, and Khan has been under pressure over knife crime.

But in the end, the social media whispers were a mirage of Conservative hope, on a bad few days for Rishi Sunak’s party across the country. The Tories have lost Thurrock Council in Essex, Rushmoor in Hampshire and Redditch in the Midlands to Labour - all key bellwethers for the general election. 

The only blot on Labour’s copybook was the ongoing issues with Gaza votes, which saw the party lose control of Oldham Council and leak councillors to the Greens and independent parties. However, Keir Starmer will be pretty happy with his work, when he assesses the elections. 

While Labour’s support has waivered in strongholds like the North East and North West, its votes are now more concentrated in swing seats - a good sign ahead of a general election. If Richard Parker defeats Andy Street in the West Midlands, which has gone to a recount at the time of writing, the pressure on Sunak will continue to ramp up.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.