Suella Braverman: Rishi Sunak's dilemma over sacking his rebellious Home Secretary

Police guard the Cenotaph - the memorial to those killed in the First and Second World War - as tourists wander past the poppy emblazoned outside the Red Lion. The atmosphere is riddled with apprehension ahead of a pro-Palestine march on Saturday, with concerns over far-right counter-protesters, and the Remembrance Sunday service.

There was already a lot in Rishi Sunak’s in-tray before Suella Braverman’s explosive opinion piece in The Times which claimed the Met Police were biased towards left-wing protesters. There are concerns events at the weekend could spill into violence, and next week the Prime Minister will find out the fate of his infamous Rwanda policy at the Supreme Court.

These are both events that concern the Home Secretary. However in this impeccably-timed op-ed she once again called protesters “hate marchers” and ambiguously compared them to events in Northern Ireland - where it’s usually unionists who carry out parades. 

This drew condemnation from senior policing figures, such as former chief inspector of constabulary Sir Tom Winsor, who said Braverman’s comment “crosses the line” by breaking the convention that a Home Secretary should not question the operational integrity of the police. The Prime Minister’s spokesperson has had to repeatedly say the police should operate “without fear or favour”.

She was criticised across the divide in Northern Ireland, with SDLP leader Colum Eastwood saying she was “deliberately stoking division”. And Labour accused Braverman of inflaming tensions ahead of the weekend, with concerns far-right groups and football hooligans may stage a violent counter-protest. Her supporters claim she is merely saying what the country is thinking, and the Home Secretary is entitled to hold the police to account.

And that was all before the revelation during a briefing to open-mouthed journalists this week that the bombshell Times opinion piece was not fully signed off by Downing Street ahead of publication. This not only undermines the Prime Minister’s authority but could potentially be a breach of the ministerial code. It is understood that No10 requested certain changes be made to the piece, and on publication, they were not.

Downing Street now says it is looking at “what happened” as part of an “internal process”. It is not thought, at this moment, to be considering whether this is a breach of the ministerial code - which requires media appearances from Cabinet members to be cleared by No10 press office. 

So what should Rishi Sunak do? On the face of it, it appears to be a pretty blatant attempt to undermine him - which usually would lead to someone being sacked from Cabinet. And let’s not forget that all the focus at the start of the week was on Labour’s frontbench rebellions over Gaza. Braverman has single-handedly taken all the pressure off Sir Keir Starmer and piled it on Sunak. 

Braverman, after all, has previous indiscretions around the ministerial code and freelancing on policy. She resigned as Home Secretary under Liz Truss for sending official documents to a confidant on her personal email. Sunak had to warn her earlier in the year, after it emerged she tried to get civil servants and her aides to arrange a private speeding course to dodge a fine.

And she’s frequently freelanced on rhetoric and arguably policy, from describing illegal immigration as an “invasion” to pro-Palestine protests as “hate marches” and recently saying rough sleeping in tents was often a “lifestyle choice”. Sunak has refused to repeat any of those statements.

The problem for Sunak is that he appeared to do a deal with Braverman during the leadership race, to forgo her own aspirations to become Home Secretary (days after resigning in disgrace). Braverman says things Sunak would never feel comfortable with (see above), however it appeals to the right of the Tory Party and drives a wedge between himself and Labour.

However, Sunak is finding out the cost of promoting someone with their own ambitions to become Conservative Party leader (something Braverman appears to have been eyeing up since her wedding five years ago). The Home Secretary’s machinations seem increasingly aimed at courting right-wing MPs and Tory Party members, with an eye on a contest if Sunak loses the general election. She’d be a nuisance from the backbenches, but it’s even more difficult having a colleague in Cabinet undermining you. 

It appears unlikely that Downing Street will make a decision on Braverman until after the weekend - it would be a huge distraction over Armistice Day and Remembrance Sunday. And after that Sunak is caught between a rock and hard place with the Rwanda decision. If the government loses - and asylum flights to Rwanda are confirmed as unlawful - Sunak could sack Braverman for failing to deliver the key tenet of his “stop the boats” policy.

However, if he holds on until then and the government wins the High Court battle, this will be a huge boost for Braverman - and make it hard for Sunak to remove her as Home Secretary. Either way, as this whole saga drags on and on, the Prime Minister’s authority is slowly sapping away. 

Now the Tories just look silly when they criticise Labour for frontbench disunity over Gaza. If it was any other minister, it is likely they would have been out the door already, yet despite Braverman clearly undermining the Prime Minister she still has his “full confidence”. At this point Sunak needs to assert his authority, dismiss her and appoint a new Home Secretary after the Rwanda decision whatever that may be. Whether he does that remains to be seen.