Azerbaijan and South Korea plane crashes highlight survival rates: Are rear seats the safest on aircraft?

On Christmas Day (December 25), an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft crashed in Kazakhstan, resulting in the deaths of 38 people, and 29 survived, many of whom were reportedly seated at the back of the plane.

Just four days later (December 29), Jeju Air Flight 2216, a Boeing 737-800, crashed while attempting to land at Muan International Airport in South Korea killing 181 people on board. Footage shows the plane skids off the runway after its front landing gear fails to deploy properly, collides with a concrete barrier, and bursts into flames. Tragically, 179 individuals lost their lives, with only two flight attendants surviving the disaster.

While air travel remains exceptionally safe, with the odds of an accident being extremely low, understanding seating safety can provide additional peace of mind to passengers, as analyses of past aviation accidents suggest that certain seating areas may offer higher survival rates.

According to 2015 analysis by Time magazine, which examined 35 years of aircraft accident data, it found that seats in the rear third of the plane had a fatality rate of 32%, compared to 39% in the middle and 38% in the front. Meanwhile, middle seats in the rear had the lowest fatality rate at 28%.

Research from the University of Greenwich indicates that passengers seated within five rows of an emergency exit have higher survival rates, stressing on the importance of quick evacuation access.

While statistical trends exist, the dynamics of each crash are unique, say aviation experts. Doug Drury, a professor and head of aviation at Central Queensland University, notes that while rear seats may offer a survival advantage in certain crash scenarios, the overall safety of air travel means such distinctions are minimal.

However, Christine Negroni, an air-safety specialist and author, says the variability of crash circumstances makes it challenging to definitively identify a "safest" seat. . The Deadly Departure and The Crash Detectives says she’s not convinced that existing studies about seat position have much merit.

“The few studies that have been done are flawed for several reasons,” Negroni says. “They focus only on fatal crashes, which is just 5 percent of airline accidents. Since those studies fail to represent the whole, I do not find them meaningful.”

Negroni believes that attributing the outcome to seat location ignores the many complicated factors that can help or hurt survivability: the location of the initial impact, whether or not safety measures malfunctioned (seat belts, oxygen masks, aisle lighting, etc.), the ability of flight crew to assist, danger outside of the aircraft, and more.

“These factors and many others create a multidimensional picture of survivability that is just not present in an equation that takes each fatal plane crash and notes the seat assignment of the dead passengers,” Negroni explains. “And, by the way, this does not even tell us whether the passenger died in that seat or somewhere else on evacuation.”

Negroni believes that many of these studies ignore just how survivable most airplane incidents can be. She personally has lived through two emergency landings—“the kind with foam on the runway and ambulances standing by.” And the experiences, she says, “make me see the fallacy in what so many people take as truth: People don’t survive airplane crashes. Oh yeah, they do.”

While the likelihood of being involved in an aviation accident is exceedingly low, passengers seeking to maximise safety might consider:

• Selecting seats towards the rear: Opting for seats in the aft section of the aircraft, particularly middle seats, may offer a marginal survival benefit based on historical data.
• Staying near emergency exits: Choosing seats within a few rows of emergency exits can facilitate quicker evacuation if necessary.
• Adhering to safety protocols: Regardless of seating position, following all safety instructions, familiarising oneself with emergency procedures, and remaining alert during critical phases of flight are crucial for personal safety.