Winds of Winter release date speculation: could George RR Martin’s next Game of Thrones novel be out in 2024?

George RR Martin’s long awaited novel The Winds of Winter could finally be nearing a release date, as the author gave a hopeful update in December.

The book is the penultimate novel in the A Song of Ice and Fire (ASOIAF) series which was adapted into the critically acclaimed HBO series Game of Thrones. The TV series ended in 2019, almost five years ago, and yet the final two novels are still not published.

A depressing landmark was reached on November 13 2023, 12 years and four months after the fifth and latest ASOIAF book, A Dance with Dragons was published. It was revealed that from that date it would be possible to develop, write, film, and air the entirety of the Game of Thrones series in the span between Dance of Dragons and Winds of Winter being published.

Martin wrote his first three ASOIAF novels at a decent pace, with A Game of Thrones, A Clash of Kings, and A Storm of Swords all being published around two years apart. Then the waits got longer, with five years between A Storm of Swords and A Feast for Crows, and then almost six years for A Dance with Dragons.

Fans have now been waiting more than twice as long for Winds of Winter, as it’s been 12.5 years since Dance of Dragons was published. But could we finally see Winds of Winter published this year? Here's everything we know so far:

Could Winds of Winter be released in 2024?

Martin has given plenty of deadlines by which he was confident Winds of Winter would be released, and so far he has always been wrong, and he has now even given up on deadlines altogether because he knows he may not meet them.

However, in a post on his blog in December last year, he dropped a hint that will have seen fans’ hopes for an upcoming release of Winds of Winter surge. In the post on December 6, Martin discussed his visit to London.

He wrote: “I also found time to meet with my British publisher, and my other British publisher, to talk WILD CARDS and A SONG OF ICE & FIRE and (of course) THE WINDS OF WINTER.”

Martin added that during the WGA strike he “stayed here in Santa Fe, working on WINDS OF WINTER and walking a picket line”.

There’s a couple of key takeaways here - obviously the news that Martin is meeting with publishers to discuss Winds of Winter is good news and suggests that plans on a publication date could be progressing.

However, take this with a pinch of salt, as Martin is notoriously bad with deadlines, and his comment that he was still ‘working on’ Winds of Winter during the strike in summer 2023 could mean that the novel is still not ready for publication, or at least it wasn’t then.

A year is a long time, if Martin really is approaching the end of his work on Winds of Winter, and meeting with publishers, then it is realistic to assume that the sixth ASOIAF novel will be published in 2024.

What other projects is George RR Martin working on?

Martin’s ASOIAF fan base are often ticked off whenever the author mentions a project that isn’t Winds of Winter, but he continues to work away nonetheless.

His other upcoming novels include two new Dunk and Egg stories - these are prequels to the ASOIAF which are much narrower in scope and follow just two main characters. He is also working on Fire & Blood Part 2, a follow-up to the history of House Targaryen, which House of the Dragon is based on a few chapters of.

Martin’s most recent project is not a book at all, but a 2025 calendar based on his fantasy world, made in collaboration with artist Eddie Mendoza. Martin shared on his blog on January 22: “From Skagos to Qarth, the Water Gardens to the Nightfort, journey across Westeros and Essos with artist Eddie Mendoza, who brings us both new takes on some of the classic series locations as well as never-before-seen locales.”

When could A Dream of Spring be published?

Ah yes, A Dream of Spring, the near-mythical seventh and final instalment of the ASOIAF series. This would be the novel which finally brings the story of the Starks and Lannisters, the White Walkers and the Wall, the battle between ice and fire to an end.

Given that we still don’t have a confirmed release date for Winds of Winter, and guesses as to when A Dream of Spring would be pure speculation. It had previously been rumoured that Martin was working on both Winds of Winter and Dream of Spring simultaneously, which would go some way to explaining the wait for the sixth book.

If this is the case then A Dream of Spring could arrive not long after Winds of Winter, with maybe a year or two for Martin to polish the novel off. However, if in fact, he still has the lion’s share of the final book to write, then it could be another decade or more after Winds of Winter is published before it lands on bookshelves, if it ever does.