By-elections 2023 live: Labour takes historic win in Selby & Ainsty after Tories hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip

Hello and welcome to NationalWorld's elections live blog. We'll be bringing you all the news, analysis and results as they come in (even in the early hours of the morning).

The Conservatives are braced for a "tough battle" to hold onto the three seats, with Labour hoping to take Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, and Selby and Ainsty, in North Yorkshire, and the Liberal Democrats Somerton and Frome in the West Country.

Losses for the Tories in all of them would be the first time in 55 years that a government has been defeated in three by-elections on the same day.

My colleague Ethan Shone has put together constituency profiles on each of the by-elections today. First up here's the lowdown on Somerton and Frome:

A relatively affluent, rural constituency which narrowly voted Leave in 2016, Somerton and Frome has been held by the Conservatives since 2015 with a fairly steady majority of around 30%. Eight parties have announced candidates so far, with the main competition coming from the Liberal Democrats, who held the seat between 1997 and 2015.

Ed Davey’s party would need a significant swing to take the seat, but the Lib Dems have proved capable of pulling off major upsets in this kind of constituency in high-profile by-elections. The Lib Dems recently took control of Somerset County Council from the Conservatives, while their by-election candidate, Sarah Dyke, was elected to the council to represent Blackmoor Vale. Among her opponents was Conservative Hayward Burt who heads up a team at Conservative Party headquarters focused on beating the Lib Dems.

As well as holding the environment brief for the Lib Dem council, Dyke is listed as a director of a vintage store which is currently selling a fully restored “mid-century industrial illuminated red sex shop light” for £540. Dyke’s campaign got off to a difficult start after a calamitous interview with the Guardian’s politics podcast in which she fumbled a question about deprivation in the constituency, describing it as “a subject that I don’t know anything about”. She could then be heard telling her media advisor that she “didn’t feel prepared at all for” the interview, and the questions were “getting a bit above [her] station”.

After the interview, Dyke wrote on Twitter: “I messed up in an interview on the first day of this campaign. My passion and desire to do this job got the better of me and I got nervous.

“I’m going to spend every day campaigning hard and proving to the people of Somerton and Frome that I’m the best choice for our area.”

The Conservative candidate, Faye Purbrick, also sits on the council and runs a consulting business. While Labour is fielding a candidate, they seem to be putting very little energy into this contest, despite no formal pact between the opposition parties.

Read Ethan's piece in full here.

Here is Ethan's preview of Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire:

The Selby and Ainsty constituency was created in 2010 and has been held by the Conservatives since then, though the seat which it was mostly created from, Selby, had been won by Labour at the previous three elections, dating back to 1997. Selby and Ainsty voted to Leave the EU.

Nigel Adams enjoyed a significant majority of just over 35% following the 2019 election. Labour will be hopeful that they can take the seat having secured more than a third of the vote in 2017, though this dropped to just under a quarter in 2019.

Labour has been campaigning hard in the area, with Keir Starmer already having paid a visit alongside several frontbench MPs.

The party has selected 25-year-old Keir Mather, from Hull, an Oxford politics graduate who worked for a year in the office of Health Secretary Wes Streeting before taking up a role at the London-based business lobbying group, the Confederation of British Industry.

Claire Holmes, a lawyer and councillor for the neighbouring East Riding of Yorkshire council, will stand in for the Conservatives, after the initial candidate Michael Naughton withdrew his nomination due to a family emergency.

Holmes told BBC News: “I know right now people want an MP who’ll only focus on improving our local communities across Selby and Ainsty – not on political point scoring in Westminster.

“That means I will work with Rishi Sunak and the government on our five clear priorities: halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debt, cutting hospital waiting lists and stopping the boats.”

And Ethan's thoughts on Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London.

Held by Boris Johnson since 2015 - the seat was established in 2010 having been created mostly out of the former seat Uxbridge, which since 1855 had been represented almost entirely by the Conservatives except for a spell between 1945 and 1959, then again between 1966 and 1970, when Labour held the seat.

Despite being traditionally safe for the Tories, due to demographic change over the last decade or so and with more younger people commuting from the constituency into central London, Rishi Sunak’s party has a lower majority here than in either of the other two seats they’ll defend this month.

Labour cut the Tories’ majority down to just over 10% in 2017, although this rose slightly in 2019 to 15% despite Labour putting a significant amount of resources into the seat.

The party’s candidate this time around, Camden Councillor Danny Beales, has said he would focus on being present in the constituency and holding regular surgeries, in contrast to Boris Johnson who was often criticised for failing to take his constituency work seriously even before becoming a cabinet minister.

While much of Beales’ campaigning has been focused on criticising Johnson, his actual Conservative opponent Steve Tuckwell is a local councillor who works in plant hire and runs a business consultancy. Tuckwell has criticised London mayor Sadiq Khan over what he describes as a “cynical u-turn” on a decision to close Uxbridge police station. The station will remain open, with Conservative councillors who say they’ve long campaigned to keep it open labelling the decision as politically motivated with the by-election campaign in mind.

As the most high-profile of the three by-elections taking place, the contest has attracted a large number of candidates. With 17 people standing, the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election will see the largest number of candidates in modern political history, with one more than the Batley and Spen by-election in 2021.

Aside from those from the main parties, the candidates will include Count Binface, Reclaim's Laurence Fox, a particularly eccentric independent candidate listed as Joseph 77 - real name Tom Darwood - as well as anti-vaxxer Piers Corbyn and Howling Laud Hope of the ever-present Monster Raving Loony Party.  There are also two independent candidates who’ve both indicated with their listed names that they are against the Ultra Low Emission Zone in London; Kingsley Anti-Ulez and No-Ulez Leo Phaure.

People hoping to hear the results of the by-elections on your local BBC radio station may struggle. Members of the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) have started a walkout which is protesting cuts to BBC local radio stations, my colleague Sam Johnson reports.

The union has said this will hit coverage of the three parliamentary by-elections.

The union said it is receiving huge public support for its campaign. Paul Siegert, NUJ national broadcasting organiser, said: “This strike action will again have a huge impact on BBC Local output, with many stations and programmes expected to be off air.

“NUJ members would much rather be working in newsrooms on Thursday and Friday, but the BBC’s damaging plans for job cuts, slashing local radio and changing ways of working remain deeply unpopular. We believe there are ways to protect and promote digital investment without cutting much-loved and valued local radio content.

“With an election around the corner, holding local politicians to account is more important than ever. Let’s protect and promote BBC Local, not eviscerate it.”

Those taking strike action work in local radio, regional TV and online in England.

"He's the worst man for the job this country's ever had." Chris Burn did not mince his words when giving his view on Rishi Sunak ahead of the by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

“He doesn’t care about any of us,” the 75-year-old told NationalWorld's Imogen Howse in the west London constituency earlier this week. “Why would he? He’s got millions of pounds. He doesn’t understand. He doesn’t care about the country. He needs to go.”

It was awkward timing for YouGov to release polling which showed Britons, like Chris in Uxbridge, did not have a particularly high view of the Prime Minister. His net favourability has tumbled to minus 40, the lowest level since he took office, the polling firm said.

Just a quarter of Britons surveyed by YouGov last week hold a favourable view of the Prime Minister, while two thirds have an unfavourable opinion. Public perception of the Labour leader is far better than that of Sunak, with Sir Keir Starmer’s favourability rating at minus 22. But it has also fallen, having been minus 14 in June.

The Spectator's James Heale has highlighted the astonishing announcement of the Ipswich by-election in 2001. Labour's Chris Mole won the election, and immediately after the announcement blaring techno music started playing with an accompanying laser show. The entertainment was part of Ipswich Council's campaign to become a city. It did not work and 22 years on Ipswich remains a town. Fingers crossed we get something similar tonight.

Defeats in today's by-elections would heighten Conservative fears that Rishi Sunak will struggle to lead them to another Commons majority. But when will the next general election occur?

The official date of the next general election has not yet been announced, however the maximum term of a Parliament is five years from the day on which it first met. The current Parliament met on 17 December 2019, which means it will automatically dissolve on 17 December 2024.

Polling Day would be expected to take place 25 days later, not counting any weekends or bank holidays that fall within that period. The latest possible polling date for the next UK general election is 24 January 2025.

The Conservatives are odds on to lose all three of today's by-elections, according to Betfair.

Boris Johnson’s former constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, is 1/8 to go into the hands of Labour, while Selby and Ainsty is 1/6 to turn red and the Liberal Democrats are 1/33 to claim Somerton and Frome. And Betfair puts Labour 1/2 to get a majority at the next election.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “This week’s by-election results will be a real test of Rishi Sunak’s resolve as the odds predict his party will lose all three seats in Thursday’s vote.

“The results of the by-elections may be a sign of things to come for Sunak and the Conservatives, as Labour are the clear 1/2 favourites to win a majority at the next election, with the Tories 9/1 outsiders to cling onto control of the House.”

Labour are feeling nervous about the impact of Sadiq Khan's Ultra Low Emission Zone in Uxbridge, Politico reports. The Labour Mayor's ULEZ is set to extend beyond the North and South Circular next month, which would include Hillingdon - the borough of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Earlier in the week, NationalWorld's Imogen Howse was out gauging the feeling of the by-election and found the topic on the tip of most people’s tongues was not departing MP Boris Johnson but the ULEZ.

Chloe Chapman, 31, told NationalWorld that the expansion will “destroy lives”. She told Imogen: “ULEZ has already destroyed things for me and my partner, as we’ve just had a baby and so can’t afford to buy a new car which is compliant. My parents have had to stop driving too, as their car doesn’t meet the rules and they can’t afford to get another one either. I mean, who can at the moment?”

The new mother added that she would vote for whichever candidate is looking to “get rid of” the scheme, before warning that there would be “a huge backlash” in Uxbridge - with people possibly “tearing cameras down” - if the expansion goes ahead as planned this August.

Steve Tuckwell, for the Conservative Party, previously told the Evening Standard that in his five years as a councillor, he has “never come across a single issue that’s generated so much anger, frustration, and annoyance as Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the ULEZ".

While ULEZ was introduced by Labour’s London Mayor Sadiq Khan, the party's candidate Danny Beales is hoping he isn't associated with it. Beales has also voiced his opposition to the scheme. Speaking at a hustings event earlier this month, he said it was “not the right time” to expand the scheme into the borough of Hillingdon.

“I think when you speak to families,” he said, “I hear heart-wrenching stories at the moment: carers who have to travel to work and can’t afford to pay for their car and may have to give up their job or they can’t afford to scrap their car with the scrappage scheme available."

Read Imogen's full piece here.