Next Prime Minister: who are the front-runner candidates in Tory leadership race, odds - when is the ballot?

The race to be the next leader of the Conservative Party is now underway following Liz Truss’s resignation.

Truss resigned from the top job after just 44 days in office and a new Prime Minister is now expected to be in place by the end of next week.

Her resignation, signalling the end of the shortest term by any PM, came following a botched financial statement earlier this month, the loss of two of her most senior Cabinet ministers and an open revolt by Tory MPs.

The Tories will now scramble to find a replacement who will become the third leader in two months, with three candidates already tipped as front-runners in the leadership race. A minimum of 100 supporters is needed to get through to the next round, meaning a maximum of three spots are up for grabs.

Who could be the next Prime Minister?

Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt and Boris Johnson are emerging as the front-runners to replace Liz Truss as Prime Minister and are likely to stand in the contest.

Rishi Sunak

Sunak was defeated by Truss in the race to become the new Prime Minister last month, gathering 60,399 votes to her 81,326. He served as Chancellor of the Exchequer until 5 July when he quit in protest at Boris Johnson’s leadership.

Sunak positioned himself as the candidate prepared to tell hard truths about the state of public finances rather than “comforting fairy tales” in the last leadership campaign. As of 4.30pm on Thursday, Sunak was the bookie’s favourite to win the race, with odds of 5/6 with William Hill.

Tory MP Steve Double said his party should unite behind a candidate such as Sunak, stating he was “willing to get behind anyone who will provide the leadership we need, is up to the job and will get back to delivering on the 2019 manifesto we were elected on”.

Speaking before Truss announced her resignation on Thursday, Double said: “Rishi Sunak’s predictions about the disastrous consequences of Liz Truss’s policies have been proven right. We now need someone like him to step up to show that they can get a grip on the situation and lead from the front.”

Penny Mordaunt

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt pledged to “keep calm and carry on” and encouraged others to do the same in the wake of Truss’s resignation. A former trade minister, with Cabinet experience in the defence and international development briefs, she ran to replace Boris Johnson with the campaign name PM 4 PM.

In that campaign, Mordaunt, a Royal Navy Reservist, said leadership “needs to become a little less about the leader and a lot more about the ship”. She came third in the race, narrowly missing out on a place in the head-to-head phase, and went on to back Truss over Sunak. Odds on Mordaunt on becoming the next party leader were 5/2 with William Hill.

Boris Johnson

Supporters of Boris Johnson are backing the former Prime Minister to make an extraordinary political comeback following Truss’s resignation.

Just six weeks after he left No 10 for the final time, his allies in Parliament are urging him to run again as the party desperately tries to avoid a general election amid dismal poll ratings.

Choosing Johnson would mean the Tories could say they are not on to their third leader since he won their mandate in 2019, but such a move is likely to be highly divisive among Conservatives, with reports that some could resigns the whip and sit as independents rather than serve under him.

There was no immediate word from Johnson, who was thought to be holidaying with his family in the Caribbean, on his intentions. However, Johnson loyalist Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary, said she had spoken to him following Truss’s resignation and hinted strongly that he was preparing to run.

She told Sky News: “He is a known winner and that is certainly who I’m putting my name against because I want us to win the general election. Having a winner in place is what the party needs to survive.”

Government minister Sir James Duddridge, who served as one of his parliamentary private secretaries, also called for his return. “I hope you enjoyed your holiday boss. Time to come back. Few issues at the office that need addressing,” he tweeted along with a “bringbackboris” hashtag.

Dudley North MP Marco Longhi added: “The only person who has a mandate from the general public is Boris Johnson. He is the only person who can discharge the mandate from the people. Please come back Boss.”

In order to do so, Johnson will need to secure the nominations of 100 of the party’s 357 MPs – a target which some at Westminster believe may be beyond him. Odds on Mr Johnson returning as party leader were 10/3 with William Hill.

When will the new Prime Minister be in place?

Truss will stay on as Prime Minister until a successor is chosen via a leadership election to be completed in the next week. Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, said the process will be concluded by 28 October.

It means that the new leader will be in place in time for a crucial financial statement on 31 October, which is intended to reassure the City of London that the government has a plan to repair the nation’s finances.

On Thursday afternoon, Sir Graham declared the parliamentary stage of the contest had begun, with nominations open. Candidates will need a minimum of 100 colleagues nominating them to proceed to the ballot.

He said it would mean a maximum of three candidates on the ballot paper for MPs to vote on. If there are three, the candidate with the fewest number of votes after the first ballot will be eliminated. That first round is to be held between 3.30pm and 5.30pm on Monday with the result announced at 6pm.

Then, in a change in procedure since the last leadership contest, there will be an “indicative” vote once only two candidates are left. This will be held between 6.30pm and 8.30pm on Monday, with the result announced at 9pm.

If two candidates end up remaining, Tory members across the country who joined the party at least three months ago will have a say. The ballot will close at 11am on Friday 28 October, with the result announced later that day.

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