UK general election polls latest: who will win 2024 election? Tory wipe-out predicted as Sunak could lose seat

Rishi Sunak could become the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat as multiple polls predict a Tory wipe-out.

The Conservatives’ campaign has gone from one scandal to another, with Sunak crucified for quitting D-Day commemorations early. Now a number of Tory candidates are being investigated by the Gambling Commission after they allegedly bet on the election date in advance.

Despite a flurry a policy announcement on national service and pensions, Sunak is still waiting for the polls to tighten. And according to one pollster, Keir Starmer is on course for Labour’s biggest ever majority in the House of Commons.

On top of that, Nigel Farage has returned to the fray to stand in Clacton, with experts thinking this could damage the Tories in a number of tight seats. Here we take a look at the latest opinion polls, and analyse who could win the general election.

YouGov - Tories on lowest ever seat count in history

Labour is set to win as many as 425 seats, with the Tories reduced to just 108, according to YouGov analysis published on Wednesday (19 June).

The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique, found the Conservatives may fall to the lowest number of seats in its near 200-year history.

MRP models the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain by identifying the views of different types of voters and then the type of voters in each seat. In 2017, YouGov successfully used this to predict a hung Parliament.

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and former minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg are among prominent figures projected to lose their seats.

The data, collected from more than 58,000 people, will make grim reading for Sunak as it shows Labour has extended its lead over the Conservatives since March despite a recent policy blitz by the ruling party. Starmer is projected to become prime minister next month with his party clocking up more gains than at any election since 1945.

The Liberal Democrats would win 67 seats, according to the forecast, with the SNP on 20 and the Green Party gaining two MPs. Reform UK would win five seats, if the election was held today, showing the impact of Nigel Farage joining the campaign. In its previous MRP poll, conducted before Farage announced he was running, YouGov found Reform would not win any seats.

More in Common - smaller Labour majority but still landslide

A separate MRP analysis, published by More in Common also on 19 June, suggested that Labour was on course for its biggest majority in 23 years. That analysis is based on voting intention data collected between 22 May and 17 June from 10,850 adults in Great Britain.

Labour is projected to have a majority of 162 gaining more than 200 seats across England, Scotland and Wales. More in Common’s MRP projects Labour will win between 395 and 416 seats.

While the Conservatives are facing their lowest seat total in modern history, rivalling their historic 1906 defeats. They are expected to hold just 155 seats.

Luke Tryl, the think tank’s UK director, said: “The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in - with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.

“Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now the Conservatives position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.

“Labour on the other hand look set to inherit a historic majority while still remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate. While creating such a broad electoral Coalition, that will span from Blue Wall Worthing to Blyth in the Red Wall is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes - especially when electoral cynicism is so high."

Redfield & Wilton - Reform and Tories neck and neck

According to Redfield & Wilton's latest poll from 14 June to 17 June, the Conservatives have dropped to 18% neck and neck with Reform UK. This development is likely to send shivers down the spine of Tories across the country.

Only 38% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will now vote Conservative again, Redfield & Wilton has found. Notably 27% of 2019 Tory voters now say they will vote for Reform UK, while 18% will vote for Labour. Keir Starmer's party’s lead is now on 25 points (43%).

Ipsos - Labour will win 256 majority and Farage will become MP

On Tuesday (18 June), Ipsos published its first MRP poll of the campaign and found Labour could win 453 seats. That would give it a majority of 256, with the Tories left on 115.

It suggests Nigel Farage will win in Clacton, while Jeremy Corbyn will lose in Islington North and high-profile Conservatives such as Penny Mordaunt, Jacob Rees Mogg, and Grant Shapps are facing Michael Portillo moments.

Ipsos says 117 seats are “too close to call”, with the Tories second in 50 of these, so marginal vote changes to could have a big impact on the number of MPs.

Savanta and Electoral Calculus - Sunak could lose his seat

An MRP poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for the Telegraph has found the Tories are facing complete wipe-out. This says that Rishi Sunak could lose his seat, the first time in history would happen to a sitting Prime Minister.

The Tories could slump to just 53 seats, with a majority of the Cabinet losing their seats. The Lib Dems could be just three seats behind the Conservatives in a remarkable turnaround. Labour is forecast to win an almost unfathomable 516 seats, with a majority of 382 - double Tony Blair’s in 1997. Reform are still not predicted to win a single seat. Nigel Farage said he would make a bet with Savanta on this. . 

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.