Jeremy Hunt's Budget is the definition of insanity - it's the same thing again but the outcome won't change

The Chancellor told us that Conservatives want to cut taxes, he has a plan for growth and the economy has turned the corner. I had a feeling of deja-vu. Hunt said exactly the same thing in the Autumn Statement, yet since then the economy has gone into recession. 

Indeed, one announcement was identical to that of last November - the 2p cut in National Insurance. He also confirmed that the main policy of the 2023 Budget - 30 hours of free childcare - would come into practice, despite being beset by problems. Neither of these changed the opinion polls substantially when first announced - what was that I was saying about insanity?

While Hunt was bullish about cutting taxes, I got a slightly different impression from Treasury officials in the post-Budget briefing to journalists. They were talking about the huge expenditure that has gone out during Covid and the energy crisis, and having to cover that. That’s why the tax burden is still set to reach its highest level since 1948, despite what the Chancellor said in the Commons.

There were some eye-catching policies - the long-needed reform of child benefit which unfairly punishes single parents and puts people off getting back into work. He also pledged to reform non-dom status less than a year after saying it was wrong. However, just like last autumn, the impact of this will be whether voters feel better off at the election time - and all evidence is currently pointing in the opposite direction.

The cost of living crisis is still the number one issue for voters, according to all major pollsters. More in Common director Luke Tryl explained getting interest rates down was the most popular request to Hunt from a focus group of 2019 Conservative voters. It’s unlikely many people are going to notice the National Insurance cut, when their mortgages are going up.

Millions more people will be pulled into higher tax brackets, due to the government freezing income tax bands - so Labour estimates that even with the measures in this Budget families will be £870 worse off a year.

And then we get to the question - do people actually want these tax cuts? They were told that National Insurance rises were to pay for the NHS, yet waiting lists are still at record levels, doctors are striking and it’s impossible to get an appointment with a dentist.

Almost every poll on this subject finds that voters actually want the government to properly fund public spending instead of using cash on tax cuts. The Treasury has effectively admitted that the 2p off National Insurance will be funded by productivity improvements in government departments. And what if that doesn’t save the billions of pounds that’s needed?

Criminals are being let out of prison early, water companies are pumping our rivers with sewage and the roads are full of potholes - yet Hunt and Sunak seem to think these tax cuts will change the course of the next general election. When marking their ballot papers, voters will consider whether they feel better off - and this Budget probably has done little to change their minds.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.