Wellingborough and Kingswood by-election: candidates and odds on Labour winning both constituencies

Keir Starmer will be hoping to change the new cycle and put a bad week behind him with victory in the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections.

Labour has had a torrid week suspending two of its Parliamentary candidates, including Azhar Ali ahead of the by-election in Rochdale for comments made about Israel. However it still remains the favourite for both of Thursday's polls.

The by-election was called in Wellingborough, Northamptonshire, after Tory MP Peter Bone had the whip stripped after Parliament’s Independent Expert Panel (IEP) found he “committed many varied acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct” against a member of his staff in 2012 and 2013. Bone denied the allegations saying the claims were "false and untrue" and “without foundation”, however MPs voted to suspend him from the Commons for six weeks and a recall petition has led to the by-election.

While in Kingswood, South Gloucestershire, former Tory minister Chris Skidmore resigned in protest against the government plans to increase the number of oil and gas licences. He said: "As the former energy minister who signed the UK’s net zero commitment by 2050 into law, I cannot vote for a Bill that clearly promotes the production of new oil and gas.“

He added: "To fail to act, rather than merely speak out, is to tolerate a status quo that cannot be sustained. I am therefore resigning my party whip and instead intend to be free from any party-political allegiance."

While both constituencies have traditionally been safe Tory seats, Labour is expected to take both and further eat into Rishi Sunak's majority in the House of Commons.

Wellingborough by-election candidates

Replacing Peter Bone as the Conservative candidate in Wellingborough is ... his girlfriend Helen Harrison. Harrison has denied that her and Bone made some sort of deal with Tory HQ for her to become the candidate - to be fair she is a councillor in North Northamptonshire.

She said that the allegations against Bone are "untrue" and described the situation as "a deeply unpleasant process". You can read an exclusive interview with Harrison by my colleague Alison Bagley for our sister title the Northamptonshire Telegraph.

Representing Labour is Gen Kitchen, who is a 28-year-old councillor in Newham, east London. Gen is from South Northamptonshire and says she's having to work hard to regain trust in politicians. In a sit-down interview, she told me: "It’s the sense that nothing works that’s pervasive. You can’t get a doctor’s appointment, you can’t get a dentists’ appointment, the roads aren’t fixed, the parks aren’t nice. When seemingly council tax and national insurance has been going up.”

Kingswood by-election candidates

Mayor of Lewisham in south-east London Damien Egan is the Labour candidate for Kingswood. Egan, who grew up in the constituency, had previously been selected for North East Bristol, which will absorb much of Kingswood when boundaries change at the next election. He told Labour List: "Whilst work drew me towards London, my family’s here and my heart has never left. I believe there’s a better way to do politics; working with people to make real, lasting change."

Defending the seat for the Conservatives is Tory group leader on South Gloucestershire Council Sam Bromiley. He has said he would not seek re-election at the general election later this year, and is only standing to stop houses being built on green belt in the area. He told the Telegraph: "I’m doing this purely so my son can enjoy those fields like I did when I was younger, and to really make our community a better place."

Wellingborough by-election odds

Labour is currently the odds on favourite to win Wellingborough. William Hill has priced Keir Starmer's party 1/12 to take the seat from the Tories.

The bookies now have Reform UK as the second favourites ahead of the Tories at 13/2. The Conservatives are 10/1.

Kingswood by-election odds

The Conservatives have slightly better odds in Kingswood, priced at 6/1 to hold onto the seat in the south-west. But Labour is still the favourite at 1/12 with William Hill. The Lib Dems are the third most fancied at 33/1.

Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “It’s been a rocky week for the Labour party, but our markets suggest they are still on course to claim a convincing victory in both the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections this Thursday.

“They are heavily fancied at 1/12 apiece for both votes this week, with the Tories 10/1 and 6/1 respectively. Reform UK are expected to make a push for the Wellingborough seat and are 13/2 to stage an upset.” The odds may change in the lead up to the election.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.