Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit Earth? NASA raises probability as 'risk corridor' home to 100 million people identified

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is believed to be aa big as Big Ben’s tower at between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, with its expected flight path due to take it over some of the world’s most populous cities. The asteroid has a 2.3% chance of hitting the earth when it passes over on December 22, 2032.

While the threat remains low, the chance of the asteroid hitting earth has doubled since scientists discovered identified it as a possible threat in December 2024. This is due to its unusual flight path, which could see the space rock fly above populous cities such as Bogota, Lagos, Mumbai and Dhaka.

In an update, NASA’s Center for Near Earth Studies said: “In the unlikely event that 2024 YR4 is on an impact trajectory, the impact would occur somewhere along a risk corridor which extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”

If Asteroid 2024 YR4 was to hit earth, it could have potentially devastating consequences. It would hit the earth with the power of 7.7 megatons of TNT - or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.

NASA is hopeful that the asteroid does not pose a serious threat to the earth. The space agency has previously successfully tested technology they developed to deflect asteroids, including in a 2022 mission in which an asteroid twice the size of Asteroid 2024 YR4 was deflected.

American astrophysicist and writer Neil deGrasse Tyson has urged the new Donald Trump administration not to cut spending on sciences, amid major overhauls of US government departments and budget focus. He said in a new post of X (formerly Twitter): “At the moment, mansion-sized Asteroid 2024-YR4 has a one-in-fifty chance of hitting Earth in the next eight years. Now might be a bad time to reduce spending on Science. Just sayin.”