Platinum Jubilee bank holiday weather 2022: Met Office forecast for long weekend - will there be a heatwave?

Hopes of good bank holiday weather may be realised, according to a Met office forecast for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee weekend, and there is even a possibility that we could get a heatwave.

Many people can expect to enjoy settled weather over the long weekend, according to predictions from forecasters, but we may have some more rain as the path of a plume of warm air from over the near continent is bringing uncertainty.

This year, the late May bank holiday,  which usually takes place on the last weekend in May,  has been moved to sit alongside the additional bank holiday for  Queen Elizabeth’s 70-year reign.

This means that we can look forward to a four-day weekend from 2 to 5 June. But, can we expect nice weather then too?

Here’s what the Met Office has said about the chances of us enjoying some bank holiday sun.

What is the Met Office weather forecast for the Platinum Jubilee bank holiday?

The Met Office predicts in their long range forecast that dry conditions are likely for most of the country in early June, although in the week leading up to the bank holiday we can expect more unsettled conditions bringing spells of rain or showers for most.

As the Jubilee weekend begins on Thursday 2 June, the weather looks settle across the UK with good periods of dry and fine weather.

A low-pressure system will introduce some showers to northwestern areas for a time, most likely affecting Northern Ireland and perhaps western Scotland.

Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England look most likely to see some showers on Friday 3 June, with a small chance of one or two for central parts, while areas further to the southeast should get the best of any sunshine, with temperatures likely peaking at 22C.

From late on Friday there is still a good deal of uncertainty, with settled weather on the cards for most with patchy cloud and sunny spells, especially in the north.

A plume of warm air from the continent could influence the weather in southern areas from Friday night, however, bringing overnight showers here that could linger for a time early on Saturday 4 June.

The main source of uncertainty is how far north this plume of warm air will extend, bringing with it an increased risk of some showery outbreaks through the weekend.

What did the Met Office say?

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Helen Caughey said: “While it may be an unsettled start to the long weekend for some with showers for Northern Ireland, Wales and western England, many parts will see much more settled conditions over the long Jubilee Weekend, with plenty of dry weather and good spells of sunshine.

“Temperatures will be widely into the low 20s, feeling warmer in the sunshine, although temperatures will drop off quickly into the evenings.

“The main source of uncertainty for the weekend itself is to do with how far a plume of warm air, currently across the continent, encroaches over southern areas of the UK from late on Friday.

“The latest outlook suggests that this plume of warm air could bring a spell of showers to southern areas overnight on Friday and into early Saturday, with some showers hanging around for a time on Saturday. Further showers are likely for southern areas on Sunday, perhaps the odd heavy one, most likely at this stage for the far southeast.

“Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England look like they’ll see the driest conditions from Friday onwards most likely enjoying some prolonged periods of sunshine.”

What does the long term forecast look like?

The Met Office has also published a three-month outlook for May to July 2022.

The three-month outlook hints that there could be some hope for good weather during the bank holiday weekend, and also the weeks that follow.

The average temperature for this three-month period is around 12C, according to Met Office data taken between 1991 and 2020.

There is a 40% chance that the months of May, June and July will be hotter than average, which is two times higher than the usual chance of hotter weather at this time of year.

It’s more likely, however, that temperatures will be average for the time of year. The Met Office has predicted that there’s a 50% chance we will experience average temperatures.

There’s also a slight reduction in the chance of the period being wet, but only by 0.8%. It’s more likely - 65% to be precise - that the season will have an average amount of rainfall.

According to Met Office data, the average amount of rainfall that falls during this three-month period is around 300mm.

Could we get a heatwave over the Jubilee weekend?

There is a chance that we could get a heatwave at least once during May, June or July 2022 - and highs of 23c are expected over the Jubilee bank holiday weekend.

But, don’t pack away your wellies just yet as there could also be heavy rainfall, and even thunder.

A Met Office spokesman said: “There is an increase in the likelihood of warmer-than-average conditions.

“Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean heatwaves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heatwaves compared to normal, particularly in June and July.

“Even with a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period, spells of wetter weather are likely, bringing heavy showers or thunderstorms at times.”