UK summer weather forecast 2022: what is the Met Office outlook for June, July and ?

The UK could be set for a glorious summer this year as the Met Office predicts a higher chance of a hot summer than normal, with an increased chance of heatwaves.

The new outlook published on 1 June comes after an early heatwave hit the UK in April which saw temperatures reach up to 23C in parts of the south east, before it turned grey and drizzly for most towards the end of the month.

However, the Met Office’s three-month summer forecast will lift spirits, as the weather experts say chances of “hot weather” are double that of other years.

Here’s a look at what weather the Met Office has forecast for the summer and what temperatures will be like in June, July and August.

What is the forecast for the next three months?

The Met Office issued their three-month outlook on Wednesday (1 June).

It states that there is an increased likelihood of high pressure being located near or to the south of the UK, with winds blowing more frequently from the west.

In terms of numbers, the Met Office predicts that in the next three months there is a 40% chance that the season will be hot, which is two times more than the normal chance.

There is a 55% chance that the season will be near average, 0.9 times lower than the normal average.

The Met Office has predicted there will be a 5% chance of the season being cool, while there is a 10% chance that the season will be wet.

Overall, there is a very high chance that the next few months will have warmer-than-average conditions.

What has the Met Office said?

The Met Office said: “Whilst this doesn’t necessarily mean heatwaves will occur, it does increase the likelihood of heatwaves compared to normal, particularly in June and July.

“Even with a slight reduction in the chance of a wet period, spells of wetter weather are likely bringing heavy showers or thunderstorms at times.”

The Met Office added that their predictions are consistent in suggesting an increase in the likelihood of temperatures being above average overall.

However, they did note that there are mixed signals as to whether the high pressure will be centred over the UK or further south.

The outlooks suggests the chances of heatwaves are higher than normal, but the Met Office said that “a range of conditions much less extreme than heatwaves are also possible.”

“The increased chance of hot conditions could just as easily reflect a mix of hot and cool days, warm nights, or less extreme levels of warmth rather than heatwave conditions specifically,” they added.

What is the forecast for May 2022?

Monday 6 June - Wednesday 15 June

The Met Office said there will be plenty of fine and dry weather through this period with a high pressure system moving in from the southeast.

Rain is more likely in the north and northwest to begin with and the south and southeast may begin to see cloudier and more showery conditions further into June.

There will be fine and dry weather across most of the UK, with temperatures generally increasing for all but remaining close to average.

Cloudier conditions continue in the south with some sunny spells, but showers or even thunderstorms are possible.

Further into the month, a low pressure system is forecasted to develop to the west, possibly bringing some more showery conditions.

However, temperatures remain near normal or warm.

Thursday 16 June - Thursday 30 June

The Met Office forecasts that conditions will stay relatively similar throughout the second half of June, with an equal chance of wet or dry conditions.

Drier weather is most likely across western areas, while wetter conditions are more probable in the east.

Temperatures are likely to be above average for most.