White Christmas 2023: will it snow in the UK - what are the chances and when did we last have one?

Every year we speculate whether this Christmas will be blanketed with snow, and for the UK, December is the beginning of when snow should fall across the country. 

However, according to the Met Office, we are more likely to see snow between January and March than in December, with snow or sleet falling an average of 3.9 days in December, compared to 5.3 days in January, 5.6 days in February and 4.2 days in March.

White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, but climate change has brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas. 

But what counts as a White Christmas, and what are the chances of having one in 2023? Here is everything you need to know. 

What is a white Christmas? 

The definition that the Met Office uses to define a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. Traditionally, to define a white Christmas, the Met Office would use its base in London, but now the locations include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff.

What are the chances of a White Christmas? 

There is a website dedicated to calculating the chance of a white Christmas, called Will I Get a White Christmas in 2023? It calculates the chances of a White Christmas around the world, and for the UK the chances are: 

• London: 25% chance
• Birmingham: 25% chance
• Manchester: 25% chance
• Liverpool: 25% chance
• Edinburgh: 25% chance
• Glasgow: 25% chance
• Cardiff: 25% chance
• Belfast: 25% chance

For the majority of the UK, it is predicted that the weather for Christmas will be heavy rain. 

When was the last white Christmas?

 The Met Office records the last white Christmas to be 2021, with less than 6% of stations recording snow falling but less than 1% of stations recording any snow lying on the ground. A white Christmas was also recorded in 2020 was also a white Christmas, with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, however, only 4% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground.

In 2017, 1% of weather stations recorded snow falling but none reported any snow lying on the ground. This was also the case in 2016 when 6% of stations recorded falling snow, and in 2015 when 10% of stations saw snow. 

But in the UK, the last widespread white Christmas was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as there was snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.

A white Christmas also occurred in 2009, when 13% of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57% reported snow lying on the ground.