Ukraine war: when will Ukraine launch its spring counter offensive - and did it send drones to Moscow?

With a spring counter-offensive close on the horizon, the war between Ukraine and Russia has begun ramping up in intensity in recent weeks.

From incessant strikes on Ukrainian cities, to new paths in the conflict which has seen Russian territory targeted, much has moved on since Russian tanks first pushed over Ukraine's eastern border in February 2022.

But what could these new movements in the conflict signal for the next stage of the war?

NationalWorld spoke to Dr Husyen Aliyev, lecturer in central and eastern European studies at the University of Glasgow, about the recent events in the war and just how close Ukraine is to launching its highly-anticipated counter offensive.

Why is Russia increasing its attacks on Ukrainian cities?

Russia has upped its attacks on targets such as Kyiv, with its latest drone strike killing three people in the city. The capital has been hit at least 17 times in the past month, with other cities such as Dnipro also in the firing line.

Dr Aliyev explained that this uptick in Russian strikes has been planned with the upcoming counter offensive in mind.

“We've seen this rise in missile and drone attacks by Russian forces over the week and a half and most of this explanation, from my point of view, is to actually deplete the Ukrainian stockpiles of aircraft and air defence missiles in advance of this much anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive", he said.

“Ukraine has been quite lavishly supplied by Western weapons in the recent months. The logic behind the missile and drone attacks is clearly to weaken Ukrainian air defences and to make them basically spend much of what they have received from the West in terms of defence on dealing with each attack so they don't have enough air defence capabilities to support their troops during the counter offensive."

However, the attacks have also given time to delay and re-stock for the expected offensive. Dr Aliyev explained that while Russia is a strong military country, they do only hold a "limited number of drones and missiles" and "need time to replenish their stocks before they start their campaigns".

When can we expect the Ukrainian counter offensive?

Much has been said about the expected Ukraine spring counter offensive. Rumours have swirled for months about the possible launch of a new assault by Ukrainian troops, similar to that seen in Kharkiv and Kherson in late 2022 when the country gained back some territory.

President Zelensky said that his country was still waiting on the arrival of military aid and equipment from its Western allies in early May. But could the offensive be imminent?

Dr Aliyev said the coming weeks were a time when the counter offensive had to happen, "because later on it could get just too hot in Donbas and elsewhere in the south of Ukraine, in order to implement on a larger scale.

“They're clearly waiting for an opportunity to start this counter offensive and because [the] Russians had quite a lot of time to prepare, to build fortifications and to create all the defensive lines. I think it's probably the moment of surprise that Ukrainians are waiting for and they just need to find the weaker spot in Russian defences like they've done before, for example during the Kharkiv counter offensive last year."

However, one of the concerns over the delay to the assault was the readiness of Russian troops. “It will obviously be more difficult this time because the Russians are far better prepared, and also Ukrainians do not want to waste the resources that they have been supplied with by the West," she said.

"There are also thousands of Ukrainian service personnel who have been trained in various Western countries over the past half a year, so they certainly have more potential than they, for example, had last year during [the] Kharkiv offensive, and during the Kherson offensive as well."

Did Ukraine attack Moscow?

On Tuesday 30 May, Moscow was targeted by a drone attack which saw eight flown into the Russian capital. The Kremlin said that it shot down five and intercepted three others, with residential buildings targeted.

The Kremlin placed responsibility for the attack firmly at the feet of Ukraine, however the country has not confirmed these reports. It follows an incident in early May in which two drones targeted the Kremlin building in the capital - but are these related?

“This drone attack on the Kremlin tower in the first week of May, it was a really tiny little drone that just dropped some small explosive on one of the Kremlin towers", said Dr Aliyev. "Most likely, it does seem like a false flag attack because clearly that drone couldn't have flown from Ukrainian territory.

“It was launched somewhere in the Moscow district because it's small. Drones are just incapable of covering such large distances. But the more recent attack which involves more sophisticated long range vehicles, is something that could potentially be done from Ukrainian territory and all of these drones were also Ukrainian made."

The use of such drones would have been unthinkable for Ukraine at the start of the war but the development of weapons since February 2022 has put the country in a better position to carry out this type of strike on Russian territory, she said.

The Moscow attack marks a new venture for Ukraine in the war. While the raid in Belgorod has been claimed by independent anti-Russian paramilitary groups, the Moscow drone strikes look likely to be the work of Ukrainian forces.

Dr Aliyev explained that these types of attacks may not become commonplace in the conflict, however. “There's quite a clear indication that there was a purpose behind this attack sent into Moscow. Ukrainians just wanted to demonstrate to Russians that they can respond in kind to these attacks, for example, on Kyiv city more recently. 

“We haven't seen a continuation or repetition of these attacks. Also, because Ukrainians probably don't see much of a purpose behind doing this," she said.

“There's not much of a military purpose or military objective in attacking Moscow unless they attack some military installations and facilities, but most of these facilities are very well protected by Russian aircraft and air defence units. We have to keep in mind that most of the drones that fell over Moscow were more of a surveillance type of drones rather than attack drones, so it's more to show that ‘we can do something like that’.”