Russia: Wagner Group rebellion completely undermines Vladimir Putin’s authority in invasion of Ukraine

Russia has been plunged into turmoil as the leader of the Wagner Group - a private mercenary organisation - has seized army bases at major city Rostov-on-Don. Yevgeny Prigozhin said he has taken this action as “revenge” against military chiefs in Moscow, who he has accused of launching a deadly strike on Wagner Group soldiers fighting on behalf of Russia in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has condemned the so-called “mutiny”, saying their actions amount to “treason” and a “stab in the back” of the people of Russia. The incensed President vowed a “severe response” - and promised that all those involved in “the threat to our statehood” will face “punishment”.

These are passionate words, and a clear sign of a man trying to regain some semblance of power and authority. Putin titled his address “an appeal to the citizens of Russia” - again drawing on his frequent public framing of himself as some sort of saviour of Russia - there to protect his people from those who threaten them. Before, that was the West. Now, it is the Wagner Group.

Even if he was pedalling a false narrative, we know that in the past, these sort of proclamations have worked for Putin. With the help of Kremlin-controlled media broadcasts, the Russian President successfully managed to convince many of his citizens that his invasion of Ukraine was a patriotic retaliation - the result of the West unleashing its own war on Russia.

But sentiment has been shifting in recent months. As the war in Ukraine enters its 17th month, it is clearer than ever that things have not gone to plan. What Putin seemed so confident about back in February 2022 - what he thought would be a swift and decisive military operation - has turned into a drawn-out conflict, with considerable losses on both sides. There is no sign of victory for Russia any time soon.

In the lead-up to this huge escalation, Wagner Group leader Prigozhin has been drawing on this public discontent. He has been openly criticising Russia’s military chiefs for months, accusing them of incompetence on the battlefield and claiming they have purposely been undersupplying his troops.

Most recently, he directly attacked defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who he said is “killing children” by sending untrained soldiers to fight in the war in Ukraine.

Prigozhin has even attempted to undermine Russia’s official stance on why it invaded Ukraine in the first place. According to Putin, the so-called ”special military operation” began to “de-Nazify” and demilitarise Ukraine. This, he insisted, was necessary to protect Russia and its people.

But Prigozhin has very publicly said this is not true. He has claimed that the war was started so that Shoigu could “get a second Hero Star” - or, because he wanted to be promoted from general to marshal. “The war wasn’t for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star,” the Wagner Group chief insisted.

Putin may have been hoping he could quickly quiet Prigozhin - and dismiss his accusations with a punchy press conference. But the Wagner Group is advancing quickly. Dramatic events are unfolding before our eyes, with one major city taken and the capital city of Moscow reportedly the next target.

Russia has of course begun its response - an “anti-terrorist regime” has been introduced and security has been tightened. But while some may see this as an attempt at a quick crackdown, for others, it is an admission that this is a very real threat for Russia.

This, of course, is embarrassing for Putin. How could things have gotten to this point? How did soldiers so quickly take Rostov-on-Don? How has a private military force overwhelmed Russia’s official army?

Putin is also not being taken seriously, here. Despite the threats of punishment, Prigozhin has issued a defiant response, posting an audio message to Telegram: “About treason of motherland, the President was deeply mistaken.

“We are patriots of our motherland. We have been fighting and are fighting now. And nobody is going - as demanded by the President, the FSB (Russia’s security service), or anyone else - to admit our guilt. Because we don’t want our country to live anymore in corruption, lies, and bureaucracy.”

Ukrainian President Voldoymyr Zelensky has also spoken out - branding Putin as “weak”. He said: Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it. And all this is one person... although he is not able to lead to anything else. Russia’s weakness is obvious.”

However the mutiny plays out, the impact on Putin’s authority, power, leadership - whatever you want to call it - is obvious. If the Wagner Group succeeds in taking Moscow, the Russian President will have a full-scale civil war on his hands. If it fails, questions of Russia’s weakness and insecurity will continue.

Because crucially, how can Putin be trusted to succeed in invading Ukraine, if his own cities are invaded - by people meant to be fighting on behalf of Russia - before his very eyes?