Rugby World Cup permutations: what Ireland & Scotland need to reach quarter finals

The pool stage of the Rugby World Cup is approaching its conclusion and many nations still have plenty to play for if they are to reach the knockout stages of the competition. All eyes this weekend will undoubtedly be on the mouthwatering clash between Ireland and Scotland and both nations are battling out for a place in the quarter-final where they will join England.

Ireland are the favourites to progress to the next round after their excellent run of form, while Scotland are in last chance saloon if they are to continue their World Cup dream. The two nations are one of many who have their work cut out this weekend and a number of major nations such as France, Argentina, Australia and even reigning champions South Africa could be eliminated from the competition if results go against them.

With that in mind we have lined up all the key permutations that you need to be aware of as we head into the final weekend of pool stage action.

Rugby World Cup permutations

Pool A

New Zealand have secured their place in the quarter-final of the competition after their bonus point win over Uruguay. In the event that New Zealand, France and Italy all finish on 15 points in Pool A, the All Blacks are guaranteed to have the best points difference and so would top the group.

France can secure top spot in Pool A if they are able to draw or beat Italy. Likewise two losing bonus points - which can be acquired by scoring four or more tries, and losing by seven points or fewer - would also be enough provided the Italians do not score four or more tries for a winning bonus point of their own. Italy must defeat the host nation to have any chances of progressing. If Italy finish level on points with France they would go through due to their head to head record.

Pool B

All eyes will be on Ireland’s clash with Scotland at the Stade de France as the fixture determines the two teams which will progress. Ireland will top the group if they avoid defeat or lose by seven points or fewer. While a Scotland win would send them through and eliminate Ireland, if they can deny Andy Farrell’s team a bonus point.

Should the three teams finish level on 15 points - Scotland win and both they and Ireland get a bonus point - the team with the best points difference will finish top of the group, with second place going to the team that won the match between those two remaining sides.

In this instance, Scotland must win by 21 points or more to claim top spot ahead of South Africa. Ireland would then qualify as runners-up on the head-to-head rule, having beaten South Africa. If Scotland don’t win by such a margin, then South Africa would top the group on points difference with Scotland finishing runners-up on head to head.

Pool C

Wales have successfully navigated their way into the last eight with a game to spare. Warren Gatland’s side have sealed their spot in the quarter-finals and a bonus point against Georgia would ensure top spot.

Fiji will join Wales in the quarter-finals if they take one point from their last game against Portugal, having beaten Australia earlier in the pool stage. If Fiji fail to collect any points, Australia will make it through to the last eight in their place.

Pool D

Steve Borthwick’s England side are through as Pool D winners. Argentina or Japan will take second spot and meet each other on 8 October to decide which nation will head through to the last eight.

A draw could be enough to secure second place for Japan or Argentina, depending on if either earns a bonus point and Samoa’s result against England. If both get try-scoring bonus points in a draw, Argentina will finish second on points difference.

If neither is able to achieve a bonus point then Samoa will be granted a slim avenue to progress to the knockout stages. In this scenario they would need to beat England by 29 points while scoring four or more tries to have the best points difference of the three teams to finish second.