US midterm elections 2022 polls: who will win the House and Senate - and how popular is Joe Biden
On 8 November the Democrats and Republicans will battle it out at the US midterm elections for a seat in the House or Senate – here we reveal who pollsters think might win.
The midterms, which are a vote for the two parts of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate), happen every four years and fall midway through a presidency. This year the elections will take place on 8 November. There are also ballots on governorships, local officials and laws such as abortion and marijuana legislation.
The midterms will not affect Joe Biden’s presidency but are effectively a vote on how well he is doing as president. Whichever party wins control of the House and Senate will have a lasting impact on his remaining time in office and legacy. His party, the Democrats, have been in control of the House and Senate making it more straightforward to pass legislation but that may soon come to an end.
The President’s popularity has nose dived over the last year and the latest polls suggest the Democrats may lose control of the House – which could also have major repercussions on the inquiry into the attack on the US Capitol in 2021.
NationalWorld has sourced data from US pollsters to reveal which parties are likely to take control of the House and the Senate and reveal who has been the more popular president at midterms – Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Who will win the House of Representatives?
The House of Representatives, which is the lower chamber in Congress, makes and passes federal laws such as raising or lowering taxes. The number of representatives in the House is fixed at 435, and all seats are up for grabs at the midterms.
Currently the Democrats hold the House but polls suggest the Republicans are favoured to win control, according to predictions by FiveThirtyEight from ABC News. Further polling analysis by The Cook Political Report shows the Republicans are leading in the race with 211 potential seats. The Democrats are predicted to have 191 and there are 33 which are a toss up. A party needs 218 seats to have control of the House.
Who will win the Senate?
The Senate is the upper chamber of Congress and has the power to hold impeachment trials. It is made up of 100 Senators (around two for each state) and this year will see 34 seats up for grabs, as well as an additional seat to replace the retiring Republican senator of Oklahoma, James Inhofe.
Pollsters at FiveThirtyEight predict that it’s a toss up as to which party will take control of the Senate. The Cook Political Report shows the Democrats could win 11 seats, the Republicans on 19 and five seats a toss up.
What else will Americans vote on during the midterms?
It’s not just the House and Senate that Americans will be voting on. There are 36 state governorships and three US territory governorships up for grabs, as well as many city mayorships and local official positions.
Crucially, there are also 129 ballot measures in 36 states which include laws on abortion. According to Ballotpedia, there will be six ballot measures in relation to abortion in 2022 which is the most on record for a single year. The legalisation of marijuanna will also be on the ballot in five states.
How popular is Joe Biden and how does he compare to Trump?
The latest polls suggest the President is not having the smoothest time with voters. His approval ratings have been consistently below 50% since last August and hit an all time low in August of this year when he scored 37.5%, according to analysis published by FiveThirtyEight.
Biden’s approval ratings reached a high on 22 March 2021 when they were at 55.1% but he had only been in office for three weeks at that point. The latest available polls for Biden just over a week before his midterm elections has him at 42.4% approval.
Donald Trump never scored approval ratings above 50% during his time in office. By the time Trump was at his midterm elections on 6 November 2018 he was scoring 41.5% approval.
By the end of his presidency, Trump’s approval ratings had plummeted to 38.3%. The poll was conducted 12 days after the January 6 attack on the Capitol.