Celebrity Traitors experts reveal ‘coin flip’ trick that could stop Faithfuls catching them
Experts have revealed the surprising game theory tactics that could help Celebrity Traitors avoid detection, including why choosing who to murder with a coin toss may be the smartest move.
Celebrity Traitors have been given a surprisingly simple piece of advice for avoiding detection: flip a coin before deciding who to murder.
Academics who have studied the psychology and game theory behind the BBC hit say choosing victims at random could actually be smarter than carefully plotting which Faithful poses the biggest threat.
The advice comes from experts at King's College London as the second series of The Celebrity Traitors races towards its final on Friday, October 30.
Warning: spoilers for the current series of The Celebrity Traitors follow.
Maya Jama, James Acaster and King Kenny remain hidden among the Faithfuls as the three surviving Traitors, with the group yet to successfully expose them.
And according to game theory expert Dr Mehmet Mars Seven, their best tactic may sometimes be to stop trying to outsmart everyone.
He said removing the strongest Faithful might look like the obvious move, but every murder gives the remaining contestants another clue about how the Traitors are thinking.
"In games of incomplete information such as The Traitors, sometimes randomisation can be optimal, meaning, for example, tossing a coin to decide who to remove," he said.
"This can be especially helpful in The Traitors because randomisation may prevent a Traitor from giving themselves away through their behaviour."
In other words, murdering the person causing you the most trouble could be exactly what gets you caught. A completely random choice gives the Faithful far less to analyse the following morning.
Why following the crowd could keep you alive
The experts also have advice for one of the most dangerous parts of the game: the round table.
Dr Seven said contestants who vote differently to everyone else can potentially boost their standing if they turn out to be right. But it can backfire spectacularly.
If the person banished is revealed to be a Traitor, anyone who voted elsewhere could immediately find themselves under suspicion.
"The important thing is that you need to have a good reason to vote for someone," he said.
Cognitive psychologist Dr Caroline Catmur said there is another reason contestants may be tempted to follow the crowd.
Standing out can make a player memorable, and in The Traitors that could also make them an attractive target for the next murder.
The best lie detectors may be good liars
There is some useful advice for the Faithfuls too, although it may not be particularly comforting.
Dr Catmur said people are generally poor at spotting when somebody is lying, with many performing little better than chance.
However, research suggests people who are themselves convincing liars can be better at detecting deception in others.
One clue could be how quickly someone answers an unexpected question.
Dr Catmur said creating a convincing lie generally takes longer than simply telling the truth, although experienced liars may be able to come up with their answer more quickly.
That could give viewers something else to watch for as the remaining celebrities come under increasingly intense questioning.
When is the Celebrity Traitors final?
The penultimate episode of The Celebrity Traitors airs on BBC One at 8pm on Thursday, October 29, picking up after the cliffhanger which left Sharon Rooney and Joanne McNally facing banishment.
King Kenny holds the deciding vote after being handed a dagger giving him double voting power at the round table.
The final then airs on BBC One and BBC iPlayer at 8pm on Friday, October 30.
The programme has become one of the BBC's biggest entertainment hits, with the finale of the first Celebrity Traitors series, won by Alan Carr, attracting an audience of around 15 million.
Dr Emma Bielecki, senior lecturer in Nineteenth-Century French Studies at King's College London, believes part of the appeal is similar to that of classic murder mysteries.
She said viewers enjoy possessing information the contestants do not and watching them attempt to work out who can be trusted.
Perhaps the ultimate lesson for this year's remaining Traitors is much simpler: sometimes the cleverest strategy is to make sure there is no strategy for the Faithfuls to spot.